South China Sea: as Philippines hosts US-Japan-Australia drills, will external players’ presence escalate tensions?

Analysts say China’s ‘relentless’ and disruptive activities in the disputed waterway have resulted in Manila’s ‘I’ve had enough’ attitude
But hosting ‘external players’ such as the US, Japan and Australia for joint military drills only raises the ‘spectre of dangerous run-ins’

South China Sea

Maria Siow

Published: 9:30am, 23 Aug 2023

Why you can trust SCMP

This week’s flurry of military activity could herald a new state of affairs in the South China Sea, analysts say, with the presence of “external players” in the resource-rich waters raising the possibility of armed clashes arising from miscalculations.

This week, the United States, Japan and Australia are undertaking joint navy drills in the South China Sea off the western Philippines – to underscore their commitment to the rule of law after a recent show of Chinese aggression in the disputed waters, Filipino security officials said.

The exercises are set to include three aircraft and helicopter carriers sailing together in a show of force, alongside joint drills, with the commanders to later meet their Filipino counterparts in Manila.

The Philippines on Tuesday completed a resupply to troops stationed on a rusty World War II-era ship – the BRP Sierra Madre – on a reef in the South China Sea, after China had blocked a previous attempt in a fraught encounter that involved a Chinese coastguard vessel firing water cannon at several Philippine ships.

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Philippines accuses Chinese coastguard of firing water cannons at its vessels in disputed waters

Jeffrey Ordaniel, an associate professor of international security studies at Tokyo International University in Japan, said escalating tensions would persist in the disputed waterway as long as “the biggest, most powerful claimant is not content with the status quo”.

He noted that the recent incident in the Second Thomas Shoal was just one instance in a series of efforts by China “to change the status quo by coercion”.

The Philippines and several Western nations, including the US, had criticised the Chinese use of water cannons in the incident as “dangerous”.

Beijing however said that its coastguard – operating 1,000km from its nearest land mass of Hainan island – was “professional and restrained” and urged the Philippines to remove the Sierra Madre, which was deliberately grounded at the shoal in 1999.

How a submerged reef is emerging as a South China Sea flashpoint

Ordaniel said the Sierra Madre’s presence at the reef, alongside the regular rotation of troops and resupply missions, had been “the status quo” since 1999, and Southeast Asian countries as well as China had committed – through the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea – to exercise “self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes”.

“In short, they promised not to disturb the status quo. China, by preventing Manila’s rotation and resupply mission, disturbed that status quo and escalated tension, violating the spirit of the 2002 [declaration],” said Ordaniel, who is also the non-resident director for maritime security at the Pacific Forum, a Honolulu-based foreign policy research institute.

Ordaniel said Manila understood it could not resist the pressure alone, and added that this week’s joint US-Japan-Australia drills were aimed at showing support for the Philippines exercising its rights under international law.

“[The drills] are a consequence of China’s bad behaviour at sea. By coercing a US-treaty ally, Beijing is seeing more Western maritime forces in the South China Sea, not less,” Ordaniel said, adding however that Manila and President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr needed to “recalibrate” their policy.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr (right) walks with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a state visit to Beijing in January. Observers say Manila needs to “recalibrate” its South China Sea policy. Photo: Xinhua via AP

Under former president Rodrigo Duterte, Manila accommodated many of Beijing’s policy preferences on the South China Sea, including setting aside the 2016 arbitral tribunal decision that adjudicated in the Philippines’ favour and rejected most of the China’s claims to the disputed waterway.

The previous Philippine administration also played down Beijing’s coercion, and explored ways to seek joint development in the contested waters, Ordaniel said. “[However], China did not reciprocate … and did not show willingness to compromise.”

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, a research fellow at the Manila-based Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation think tank, said the growing presence of allied air and water assets in the strategic waterway via joint patrols or drills would increase “the spectre of dangerous run-ins”.

China did not reciprocate … and did not show willingness to compromise

Jeffrey Ordaniel, security studies professor, on Manila’s South China Sea policy under Rodrigo Duterte

Beijing’s “heavy-handedness” is likely to compel Manila to double down on working with allies and partners, Pitlo said, noting that doing so would also strengthen Manila’s position in any negotiations on the maritime row.

While the Philippines will not take part in this week’s drills, it is open to becoming a participant in the future, according to Filipino officials.

“China is likely to increase pressure on the Philippines in the South China Sea to dampen Manila’s enthusiasm to revitalise alliance ties with Washington, especially as it bears on a potential Taiwan Strait contingency,” Pitlo said.

Of the five US treaty allies in the Asia-Pacific – Australia, South Korea, Japan and Thailand among them – the Philippines is closest to Taiwan. Increased US access to Philippine military bases is also expected to have a bearing on any conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

Philippine and US coastguard ships patrol in the South China Sea in September last year. Photo: EPA-EFE

Beijing views the island as a renegade province to be brought under mainland control, by force if necessary. Many countries, including the US, do not officially acknowledge Taiwan as an independent state but oppose the use of force to change the status quo.

Joshua Bernard Espeña, a resident fellow at the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank in Manila, said tensions in the South China Sea were likely to become more heated as all sides were refusing to waver from their approach.

China’s “relentless” and disruptive activities in the sea had resulted in the Philippines’ “I’ve had enough” attitude, he said, while Beijing is likely to view Manila’s support of external players such as the US, Australia, and Japan as “destabilising”.

China warns of external influence ahead of South China Sea code of conduct talks

Espeña said that Manila’s continued attempts to deliver supplies to the Second Thomas Shoal would result in uneasiness among Southeast Asian states.

This could result in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations taking a more proactive approach to easing Manila-Beijing tensions in the South China Sea, he said – or even possible unilateral action should the former option fail to work.

“[The former] option will only work if China accepts Asean centrality,” Espeña said, referring to the bloc’s cornerstone doctrine that it must be the dominant regional platform for overcoming common challenges as well as engaging with external powers.