Can India’s Congress Party turn tables on ruling BJP in national elections if it ‘certainly wins’ state polls?

But a victory in state elections does not mean the party will be able to turn the tables on the ruling BJP in next year’s national polls

Analysts say PM Narendra Modi’s BJP ‘faces a problem’ at national polls, with regional parties forming an alliance this time unlike in the last two elections

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Rahul Gandhi, leader of India’s main opposition Congress party, addresses the media in New Delhi. He has said his party is leading in three of five state elections that are coming up from November to December. Photo: Reuters

Published: 8:00pm, 27 Sep 2023

India’s main opposition Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi has said his party is leading in three of five state elections that are coming up from November to December, an assessment analysts say is on the mark.

But a victory in the coming state elections does not mean the party will be able to turn the tables on the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in national polls next year. India is due to hold state elections before the year-end in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Telangana and Mizoram.

“I’d say right now, we are probably winning Telangana, we are certainly winning Madhya Pradesh, we are certainly winning Chhattisgarh. Rajasthan, we are very close, and we think we will be able to win,” Gandhi said on Sunday at a meeting . “That is what it is looking like, and by the way, that is also what the BJP internally is saying.”

Yashwant Deshmukh, founder of research firm C-Voter, said Gandhi’s assessment was in line with the firm’s opinion surveys.

“We have been consistently saying that Congress has a very good chance in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana and has a fighting chance even in Rajasthan. He is picking up the right signals,” Deshmukh said.

“However, where he is getting it completely wrong is about the state assembly elections’ voting intentions, and getting [it] confused with the probability in next year’s Lok Sabha (parliamentary) elections,” he said.

Indian voters had voted for the Congress Party in state elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh even in 2018, prior to the national elections in 2019.