AnalysisIsrael-Gaza war: why Qatar, Egypt and Turkey are struggling to mediate the conflict

Brokering a ceasefire appears all but impossible amid the escalating violence, as fears grow of a massive humanitarian crisis if Israel invades Gaza

Observers say there’s room for ‘trustworthy’ mediators to lay the groundwork for de-escalation, but containing the crisis seems to be the top priority

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Smoke plumes billow into the air during Israeli air strikes in Gaza City on Thursday. Photo: AFP

Published: 12:00pm, 13 Oct 2023Updated: 12:01am, 20 Oct 2023

Diplomatic efforts to avert an Israeli invasion of Gaza look doomed to fail as neither side in the escalating Middle Eastern conflict has indicated any willingness to negotiate.

On Wednesday, five days after Hamas carried out its deadliest assault on Israel in half a century – killing more than 1,200 people and taking dozens of others hostage – Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant vowed at a late-night briefing to wipe the Palestinian militant group that has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007 “off the face of the Earth”.

Mass civilian casualties are feared in the event of a ground invasion, adding to the around 1,200 people already killed and 5,600 wounded as of Thursday by retaliatory Israeli bombardments, according to Palestinian health authorities.

Relatives mourn people killed in an Israeli air strike in Gaza City on Monday. Photo: AP

Tiny gas-wealthy Qatar, which maintains relations with Hamas and frequently acts as an interlocutor between the United States and Iran, confirmed on Monday that it was working in coordination with Washington to secure the freedom of Israeli women and children who the group had taken hostage.

But by Tuesday, a spokesman for Doha’s foreign ministry said it was “too early” to broker an exchange of the hostages for Palestinian women and children held in Israeli custody, adding “I think we need to see developments on the ground” before such mediation can begin.

“I think a lot of violence has yet to occur before much negotiated progress can take place,” William Park, a senior defence-studies lecturer at King’s College London, told This Week in Asia.

“I would guess – and I mean guess – that Hamas would be more likely to use the hostages to influence Israel’s military conduct. Indeed, it is already doing so,” he said.