Will China-friendly Laos affect ‘unity in Asean’ over Myanmar crisis, South China Sea?

As new Asean chair, Vientiane may be ‘susceptible to Chinese pressure’ when dealing with the South China Sea issue, analysts say

It also faces pressure to reverse Asean’s ‘slow’ response to Myanmar, but a plan involving Indonesia and Malaysia could help it meet the challenge

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Liu Jianchao, left, head of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee’s International Department meets Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith on September 8. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 1:00pm, 11 Nov 2023

As it prepares to take over as Asean chair, Laos faces a high-wire act to avoid exacerbating divisions inside the bloc, lawmakers and experts warn, with pressure on Vientiane to toughen its line on Myanmar’s junta and remain even-handed on contentious issues linked to its patron China.

Communist-run, landlocked and poor, Laos has hooked its economic fortunes to China, which covets the energy potential, raw materials and farm produce of its tiny southern neighbour and has lent Vientiane billions of dollars for rail, road and dam projects.

That has raised questions among the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) over Vientiane’s political willingness – and capacity – to push back at Beijing, particularly in tackling its growing assertiveness in the South China Sea dispute.

Laos last week announced a theme of increased connection and resilience for its Asean chairmanship, which formally begins on January 1.

But already it is facing questions over how to handle the divisive issue of Myanmar’s junta, which seized power in 2021 and has since presided over a a crumbling economy and mounting bloodshed that has displaced millions.

Fellow Asean members Malaysia, Singapore and current chair Indonesia have backed a limited diplomatic freeze on Myanmar representatives attending some key meetings.

Splits over Myanmar among a bloc that is by custom allergic to public displays of division could widen if Laos does not toughen its stance on the Myanmar crisis, especially as violence against the civilian population intensifies, analysts say.

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