Is India-China rivalry over Maldives set to deepen after troop withdrawal order or ‘more fiction than fact’?
- New Maldives president Mohamed Muizzu has pledged to reduce his country’s dependence on India amid China’s growing influence
- The island nation’s tourism-dependent economy is reliant on Indian tourists and ‘can’t expel all the Indians’, an analyst says
Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s post-election directive this month for India to withdraw troops from the tiny island nation has heightened fears of an escalating New Delhi-Beijing rivalry over the strategically located archipelago.
Beijing and New Delhi have been vying for influence in the country in the Indian Ocean, which sits on a busy shipping corridor. Analysts say these sea lanes are vital for India to defend its southern state of Kerala and could emerge as a potential flashpoint between India and China, whose relations have deteriorated since a border clash three years ago.
Chances of conflict between the two Asian giants over the Maldives are low at the moment, security analysts say, with one citing New Delhi’s calm reaction to the withdrawal order and both sides are trying to reach a compromise.
The new Maldivian leader had previously campaigned on the election plank of altering the nation’s “India First” policy. In September, he defeated his predecessor Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, whom he accused of allowing India to hold sway over the island nation. India maintains 70 soldiers, a radar station and surveillance aircraft in the Maldives. Indian warships help guard the island nation, and its helicopters and aircraft are used for medical evacuations.
Manoj Joshi, a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, said New Delhi had correctly responded by not overreacting to the troop withdrawal order and is hopeful of a compromise.