Indonesia election 2024: as Prabowo dances his way up the polls, can he keep in the groove until voting day?

Prabowo Subianto is riding high in the polls after winning over Indonesia’s younger generation with an ‘adorable’ social-media campaign

The momentum is such that some observers are already predicting his outright victory in February – if not for an unlikely alliance between his rivals

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Prabowo Subianto dances in this still from a social media video shared on Instagram by his Gerindra Party. Photo: Instagram/@gerindra

Published: 11:30am, 25 Nov 2023Updated: 12:44pm, 26 Nov 2023

Indonesian presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto is dancing his way into the hearts of voters, literally. His transformation from a controversial military strongman into a social-media sensation has been enabled by massively viral TikTok videos of him at rallies doing what he refers to as his “happy dance”.

Now the former special forces commander, who was once banned from the United States over alleged human-rights abuses in East Timor, is being called gemes – an Indonesian slang term that roughly translates as “adorable” – by a younger generation both largely unfamiliar with his contentious past and broadly supportive of his campaign, as shown by his ticket’s dominance in recent polls.

The question now is whether the ex-general can maintain his groove until the election in February, or whether his rivals can find a way to change the beat.

Prabowo is certainly familiar with the rhythms of presidential campaigning, having already campaigned to be the country’s leader twice, both times losing to current president Joko Widodo.

But Prabowo has turned over a new leaf in recent years. He shocked many by allying himself with his former bitter rival and accepting the position of defence minister in Widodo’s cabinet. Since then, he’s shifted away from his strongman persona and taken on a softer, more personable side in public, aided in no small part by a social-media team that figured out how to take advantage of his awkward dance moves.

His closest competition in February’s contest is former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, who early on was considered the most likely to succeed Widodo. But Prabowo’s charm offensive has seen him pull ahead and consistently lead the polls since August.

Prabowo made a potentially game-changing decision last month by naming Widodo’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as his running mate. The choice was controversial given that Gibran, the 36-year-old mayor of Surakarta, did not meet the legal age requirement to run until a Constitutional Court ruling last month modified the law, paving his path to join the ticket.