South China Sea: Philippines risks its Beijing ties with ‘non-starter’ mini code of conduct plan

The Philippines risks torpedoing its relations with Beijing and derailing talks on a wider South China Sea code of conduct by pursuing a separate set of rules and regulations for the disputed waterway with fellow claimant states, analysts say.

Security experts have warned that China will not take kindly to attempts to “gang up” on it, following Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s recent announcement that he had approached Vietnam, Malaysia and others to discuss their “own” code of conduct (COC).

China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) have been working on a South China Sea COC for more than two decades, but progress has been slow despite commitments by all parties to advance and accelerate the process.

But Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute who specialises in Asian security issues, said Vietnam, Malaysia and the other South China Sea claimant states were highly unlikely to go along with the Philippine proposal as they had already committed themselves to COC talks with Beijing.

“Any attempt to start a parallel set of talks to the Asean-China negotiations risks derailing the COC process,” he said. “Nobody wants to start all over again.”

China-Philippines relations have become increasingly tense in recent months, with vessels from both countries becoming embroiled in naval skirmishes, including two collisions near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in October.