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Seoul urged to keep inter-Korean military pact as tensions soar: ‘it’s a safety pin for peace’

  • The launch of anti-Pyongyang leaflets and partial suspension of an inter-Korean military accord are escalating tensions on the peninsula
  • Despite the risk of ‘an armed clash’ over the pamphlets, it’s in South Korea’s interest to keep the pact in place ‘than walking away from it’, analysts say

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Activists in Paju, South Korea, prepare to release balloons bearing anti-Kim leaflets on April 15, 2011. Photo: AP
The risk of an “armed clash” erupting on the Korean peninsula in the coming months has reached a critical level, according to analysts who point to a convergence of two factors – the provocative launch of anti-Pyongyang leaflets and the partial suspension of a crucial inter-Korean military accord.

The alarm centres around the North possibly using anti-aircraft guns to shoot down leaflet-carrying balloons, with observers saying it would be “anybody’s guess” as to how tensions could escalate, especially with the suspension of a 2018 conflict-easing agreement over Pyongyang’s recent military satellite launches.

South Korea’s Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho on Tuesday said the current conservative government would respect constitutional “freedom of expression” and allow activists to launch leaflets across the border into the North.

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He cited a court ruling in September that found unconstitutional a 2020 law prohibiting such leaflet launches, mostly by former defectors from the North, with those in breach facing a maximum of three-year prison terms and fines of 30 million won (US$22,700).
North Korean defectors release balloons carrying anti-Kim leaflets in Paju on October 10, 2014. Photo: AP
North Korean defectors release balloons carrying anti-Kim leaflets in Paju on October 10, 2014. Photo: AP

North Korea last month threatened to “pour a shower of shells” on the South over anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets, condemning the campaign as “psychological warfare” and “a pre-emptive attack” that would act as a “detonator” of a war bringing about an end to its southern rival.

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