Sara Duterte for Philippine president? Poll complicates feud between Marcos Jnr and her father

Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio ranked as the most favoured potential presidential candidate in a survey released on January 25 by independent pollster WR Numero, with 35.6 per cent. Broadcaster and senator Raffy Tulfo came in at 23 per cent, and former vice-president Leni Robredo, who was defeated by Marcos Jnr in the 2022 election, received 9 per cent in the survey, which was conducted from November to December and had more than 1,000 respondents.

Duterte-Carpio was the most preferred option across a number of demographics, including age, sex, location, socioeconomic class and gender identity. She also led among voters who said they were supporters of the current Marcos Jnr administration, and those who identified as independent. Among opposition supporters, she ranked third after Tulfo and Robredo.

Cleve Arguelles, a political scientist who is the head of WR Numero, told This Week in Asia that the incumbent vice-president’s lead in the polls was not surprising, because people see her as a natural successor to Marcos Jnr.

“By virtue of her position, people expect her to run and see her as eligible to be the next president. We often see her on television and on the radio. She has a good reach compared to the other potential presidential bets,” he said.

She also benefits from her association with two of the country’s most influential political families.

“In a country where people rely on family names as a way to make sense of different politicians and their entire electoral landscape, the Duterte brand enjoys [a positive reputation] among a good number of Filipinos, primarily because former president Duterte was one of the most popular Philippine presidents we’ve seen since the end of the Marcos dictatorship,” Arguelles said.