Can Pakistan’s election bring political stability, and improve ties with India, despite a ‘polycrisis at home’?

The outcome of Thursday’s election is expected to further empower its military-led establishment and do little to politically stabilise the country

With military strongmen in charge, analysts said there is little chance of relations between Pakistan and India being normalised

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Workers sort out ballot boxes before dispatching them to polling stations ahead of Pakistan’s general election in 2018. Photo: Reuters

Published: 7:00pm, 2 Feb 2024Updated: 8:38pm, 2 Feb 2024

Pakistan will head to the polls next Thursday to elect a new government, but the outcome of the election is expected to further empower its military-led establishment and do little to politically stabilise the country of about 242 million people.

Analysts say that with hardline generals set to remain in power, there is little chance of normalising relations between Pakistan and India, with the former dealing with a “polycrisis at home” that includes tensions with the Taliban and rising insurgent violence.

The elections come after a brief campaign marred by the military’s efforts to prevent jailed ex-prime minister Imran Khan from regaining power.

Despite his imprisonment on controversial charges, Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party is expected to give front runner the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party a run for its money.

Ousted Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan on Tuesday was sentenced to 10 years in jail for revealing state secrets. Photo: AFP

But the consensus among poll watchers is that no single party will win a majority in the National Assembly on February 8.

The Pakistani establishment “has tended to prefer coalitions and if, as is being reported, it is managing these elections like before, we may yet see another coalition emerge from these elections,” said Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador who is currently a senior fellow at the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi.