Diplomacy’s untimely death leaves Koreas on ‘extremely bleak’ brink — amid fears of a Trump redux

Dialogue between North and South Korea has given way to fiery rhetoric and mutual threats of destruction that neither side seems inclined to walk back

Tensions are only expected to ratchet higher as the year progresses, analysts say, especially if a second Trump presidency forces Seoul to go it alone

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Kim Jong-un looks on during the test-fiiring of a new-type of surface-to-sea missile at an undisclosed location in North Korea on Wednesday. Photo: KCNA via KNS/AFP

Published: 9:30am, 18 Feb 2024Updated: 9:39am, 18 Feb 2024

As a perilous game of brinkmanship plays out on the Korean peninsula, a conspicuous lack of diplomacy to defuse escalating tensions is threatening to boil over into direct conflict between North and South.

This absence of diplomatic initiatives heightens the risk of further destabilisation, analysts say, as hostilities intensify over a string of weapons tests, military drills, and mutual threats of destruction.

Both Koreas appear to have forsaken the pursuit of dialogue in favour of fiery, uncompromising rhetoric, said Hosaka Yuji, a political-science professor at Sejong University in Seoul, with South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol’s hardline stance only feeding into Pyongyang’s aggression.

South Korea’s conservative President Yoon Suk-yeol has taken a hardline stance on the North since his election in 2022. Photo: South Korea Presidential Office via AP

In his latest salvo, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on February 8 threatened to “wipe out” hostile forces if they “attempt to touch the dignity of our nation and people even by a hair’s breadth”, stressing the country’s “combat readiness”.

Kim has now designated South Korea as the North’s “principal enemy” and defined it as a separate, hostile country – in a significant departure from Pyongyang’s traditional view of its rival as occupied territory.

As part of the shift, the North has also abolished government agencies responsible for inter-Korean exchanges and dialogue, with the constitution being altered to say Pyongyang’s forces should “completely occupy, subjugate, and reclaim” the South in the event of war.

North Korea on Wednesday unleashed a volley of cruise missiles off its east coast – the fifth such barrage in a month – as it continues to flex its military muscle with weapons tests spanning ICBM test-firings and the successful launch of its first spy satellite.