How many submarines does the Philippines need to deter Beijing amid South China Sea row?

Manila is perceived to be slow to adopt submarine deterrence compared with neighbouring states, due to its focus on ground troops

Despite their cost, experts say even a few submarines will have an ‘outsized effect’ on the battlefield – with three being the ‘magic number’

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A China Coast Guard vessel manoeuvres near Philippine Coast Guard vessel BRP Teresa Magbanua in the South China Sea. Photo: Reuters

Published: 12:00pm, 19 Feb 2024Updated: 1:09pm, 19 Feb 2024

The Philippines should acquire at least three military submarines to ensure effective deterrence against China amid mounting maritime tensions between both countries, analysts have said, after Manila confirmed it would start buying such vessels.

While the numbers may be small compared to Beijing’s, experts say these vessels play an “outsized effect” on the battlefield, as they can put other countries’ surface warships at risk and even alter an adversary’s naval strategy.

Manila is perceived to be slow to adopt submarine deterrence compared with other littoral states in Southeast Asia, due to its focus on ground troops.

Earlier this month, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr approved the third phase of the military’s modernisation, which includes the purchase of the country’s first submarine, to defend its maritime sovereignty in the disputed South China Sea.

A Chinese vessel, identified by the Philippine Coast Guard as “maritime militia” near Scarborough Shoal in the disputed South China Sea. Photo: AFP

While Roy Trinidad, navy spokesman for the West Philippine Sea, did not say how many submarines Manila intended to acquire, he indicated that “definitely more than one” would be bought.

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