South Korea’s liberal opposition set to retain parliament control as voters pass ‘harsh judgment’ on president
- After the election, Yoon will face greater difficulty in pushing through his pro-market reforms in labour, the national pension fund and education, analysts say
- But he would still be able to use his presidential executive orders and veto powers to cope with the opposition-controlled outgoing parliament
South Korea’s parliament is set to remain in the hands of liberals for another four years, with the ruling conservative party facing a defeat in parliamentary elections widely seen as a midterm referendum on President Yoon Suk-yeol.
Analysts say a “harsh judgment on Yoon” is imminent from the electorate, amid unhappiness over inflation, economic woes and a string of recent political missteps by the administration, but the results would not sway his hardline political stance.
The liberal opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) is expected to win up to 196 seats, with Yoon’s ruling People Power Party (PPP) to win up to 105 seats in the 300-seat parliament, state-funded KBS said, citing an exit poll on Wednesday by South Korea’s top three TV broadcasters.
The reformist Rebuilding Korea Party (RPK), led by former justice minister Cho Kuk and founded on March 3, placed third. The party has influenced the shifting mood of voters, successfully attracting those advocating for swift and extensive reforms.
Voters have voiced their dissatisfaction with inflation and economic challenges through the ballot, highlighting a widespread sentiment that the Yoon administration has fallen short in its commitments to rejuvenate the economy and foster a more equitable society, according to analysts.
“Voters delivered a harsh judgment on Yoon through these elections, which were widely viewed as a midterm referendum on his performance on the job over the past two years”, Choi Jin, head of the Institute for Presidential Leadership, told This Week in Asia.
“Many moderates and swing voters shifted allegiance to the liberals, expressing their anger and frustration at the declining standard of living and high food prices”, he said.
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However, in a notable shift, economic woes – surging vegetable prices, in particular – have taken centre stage, as the government’s perceived failure to address the issue has fuelled resentment among voters.
Since his election victory against opposition leader Lee Jae-myung with a razor-thin margin in May 2022, Yoon has cold-shouldered the opposition-dominated parliament even though its cooperation is essential to pass reforms in areas such as labour, national pension, and education.
The political deadlock and administrative inertia have left Yoon with few domestic achievements to highlight to voters.
Critics contend that South Korea is increasingly resembling a “republic of prosecutors” under Yoon as he has appointed several former prosecutors to influential positions.
Moreover, there are concerns that legal authorities are showing a lack of urgency in investigating allegations against Yoon’s associates and relatives, in contrast to swift actions taken against political adversaries for minor infractions.
His apparent inaction in cracking down on alleged scandals surrounding his wife and his associates, in contrast to swift and harsh responses to alleged wrongdoings by political opponents, has dented his earlier image as a hard-nosed law enforcer who championed the cause of a “fair and just” society.
Is South Korea’s Yoon Suk-yeol at risk of becoming a lame duck president?
After the election, Yoon will face greater difficulties in pushing through his pro-market reforms in labour, the national pension fund and education, analysts said.
He would still be able to use his presidential executive orders and veto powers to cope with the opposition-controlled outgoing parliament. But an election defeat would weaken his say over the administration and deprive him of much influence over lawmakers from his party, political observers said.
“He will find himself becoming a political lame duck who is unable to exercise his executive power properly”, Choi said.
Yoon is unlikely to compromise and soften his leadership style to placate the opposition after this election, and is likely to continue to strengthen the alliance with the US and Japan, said Lee Jun-han, a professor of political science at Incheon National University.
