India-Pakistan formal dialogue unlikely as cross-border terrorism remains sticking point

Analysts say a thaw in tensions could come with a changing of the guard in Pakistan, with both sides keen to not let ties worsen amid significant challenges
Pakistan can do more to stop terrorism perceived to be emanating from its soil as part of efforts to improve ties, they add

India

Junaid Kathju

Published: 12:00pm, 11 Apr 2024

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Rising tensions between India and Pakistan over alleged extrajudicial killings by New Delhi are seen to be largely rhetorical, but formal dialogue remains unlikely, with cross-border terrorism expected to be the main sticking point for both sides.

The latest war of words centres on a Guardian report alleging India’s foreign intelligence agency, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), had assassinated 20 militants in Pakistan from a group listed by the United States as a “terrorist organisation”.

Though Delhi has not officially reacted to the news, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh in a TV interview last Saturday said his country would kill anyone who disturbed the peace in India and fled to Pakistan, in response to a question about the report’s authenticity.

India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has said his country will kill anyone who disturbed the peace in India and fled to Pakistan. Photo: Pool via Reuters

Pakistan’s foreign office then condemned Singh’s statement as “provocative”. Islamabad warned that Indian officials’ “myopic and irresponsible behaviour” could put regional peace at risk, while also calling for accountability from Delhi and claiming to have “irrefutable evidence” linking India to the extrajudicial killings.

Before the verbal brawl, Pakistan’s foreign affairs minister Ishaq Dar had expressed a desire to resume trade with India, even as Islamabad later backtracked from the statement.

Political pundits were optimistic that a thaw in long-standing tensions between India and Pakistan could come with a change of the guard in Islamabad.

Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Centre’s South Asia Institute, said that given both countries were facing significant challenges, Delhi and Islamabad had a strong interest in not allowing their relationship to worsen.

“India is dealing with a China challenge, while Pakistan is dealing with internal challenges as well as border tension with Afghanistan along with Iran. So, I think neither country has an interest in escalating tensions,” Kugelman said.

“I think we should look at this reaction in a rhetoric coming out of this Guardian report, it really is performative … [yet] reflecting a worsening relationship,” he added, cautioning that with the fragile ties and historical baggage between both sides, it would not take much for a new crisis to erupt.

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Kugelman said India and Pakistan had imposed conditions on each other that made it difficult for both to agree to a resumption of formal dialogue.

“India has said that there can’t be talks with Pakistan unless it deals with the terrorism issue while Pakistan is essentially indicating that until India changes its policy in Kashmir, including reversing its decision on repealing Article 370, there can’t be any type of broader dialogue with India,” he said, referring to Delhi’s stance on Kashmir.

The allegation from Pakistan comes months after Canada and the US also accused India of carrying out extrajudicial killings and attempting to target separatist Sikh leaders on their soil.

Senior Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir, who first broke the story about Indian agencies’ hand in the killings in Pakistan in September 2023, told This Week in Asia that intelligence officials from both countries had been in contact with each other for a long time, hence the initial silence over the matter.

Muslims stand outside the closed entrance of the deserted Jamia Masjid, or Grand Mosque, in Srinagar, Indian-controlled Kashmir, on Wednesday. Photo: AP

Mir said both sides had all along “never wanted to create a problem by speaking loudly against each other”, until August 2023 when a bomb blast in Islamabad outside the home of a militant leader became the wake-up call for Pakistanis.

Following more arrests last year by Pakistani intelligence which led to a halt in extrajudicial killings, Islamabad then realised Indian agents were “playing a double game” and “running a secret cell with a command centre in the UAE”, claimed Mir, who added the Guardian report had forced Pakistan to finally lash out.

Former Indian diplomat Anil Trigunayat said cross-border terrorism remained the main obstacle between India and Pakistan, “making significant changes in their relationship challenging”.

Trigunayat said tensions would only be quelled provided Pakistan offered assurance in stopping terrorism perceived to be emanating from its soil. “There definitely will be less tempers, provided there is some credible evidence to know that Pakistan is very serious in tackling the issue.”

Trigunayat said if there were to be any major changes in ties between both sides at all, it could only come under the Narendra Modi government. “Indian policy has always remained that an economically strong Pakistan is in India’s favour. The only thing is that the conditions that India desires need to be met. It can’t be only one-way traffic.”

Bharatiya Janata Party supporters attend a rally ahead of parliamentary elections in Kathua, India, on Wednesday. Photo: AP

Election effect

The new allegations come as India approaches its general elections on April 19. Pakistan is a sensitive issue in Indian politics, often exploited by politicians, especially from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), for nationalist gains.

Ajay Gudavarthy, an associate professor at the Centre for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, told This Week in Asia there was a presumption that the BJP government was capable of generating a narrative around security issues during election time.

“Last time they made Pulwama [an] issue,” he said, referring to a 2019 incident in which 40 Indian soldiers were killed in a suicide attack in India-administered Kashmir. According to Gudavarthy, the BJP is already riding the mantra Ghar Mai Gus Kai Maregai, which means “will go to their safe havens and kill the terrorists”, with Modi invoking it in recent campaigns.

Gudavarthy noted, however, that sparking hyper-nationalism might not be as effective this time, pointing to a less optimistic electorate this time, on the back of a bonds scandal plaguing the government.

Can Shebaz Sharif thaw Pakistan-India ties as Kashmir remains sticking point?

Senior journalist Mir also said Indian official Singh’s statement was a bid to cash in on issues ahead of the polls, while on the other hand Pakistan was in no position to make any peace breakthroughs.

“Recently, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar hinted about trade with India, but it will be very difficult for him to move ahead after this expose. The timing of the story is very intriguing,” Mir said.

Mir noted that Saudi Arabia wanted improvement in India-Pakistan relations, and Pakistan Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif was in Saudi Arabia when this issue resurfaced.

According to a joint statement issued by Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, after the end of Sharif’s tour, the two sides – Saudi Arabia and Pakistan – stressed the importance of dialogue between Islamabad and Delhi to resolve the outstanding issues between them, especially the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, to ensure peace and stability in the region.

However, Mir said Sharif “may not be able to oblige his Saudi friends in [the] near future”.