Israel and Iran have ‘obliterated the ladder’ as Middle East teeters on edge of wider war

The first-ever direct Iranian attack on Israel has brought the conflict between the two countries ‘out of the shadows and into the light’

Israel’s attack against Iran’s consulate in Syria could have been a bid by Netanyahu to drag the US into a conflict with Tehran, an analyst says

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An Israeli flag being burnt during the funeral for seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a strike in Syria, which Iran blamed on Israel, in Tehran on April 5. Photo: AFP

Published: 9:30am, 19 Apr 2024Updated: 2:12pm, 19 Apr 2024

Six months of escalating shadow warfare between Israel and Iran, running parallel to the Gaza conflict, has torn up the rules of engagement that for years had prevented their enmity from triggering a catastrophic war across the Middle East.

Fear is now rife across the region that such a conflict could be inevitable even if Israel’s allies were able to dissuade it for now from carrying out a strong retaliation to Iran’s massive albeit well-advertised attack using hundreds of so-called suicide drones and ballistic missiles on April 12-13.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukri warned earlier this week the conflict “will get us into a never-ending cycle of reprisal that will only lead to a wider-scale confrontation”.

Israeli counterstrikes against targets near the Iranian cities of Isfahan and Tabriz on Friday were downplayed by Tehran as involving quadcopter drones that had been shot down by air defences, suggesting that Tehran would not further escalate, analysts said.

Iran did not retaliate after four such quadcopter attacks on missile and drone facilities previously, allegedly conducted by Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, between 2021 and 2023.

Tensions between Iran and Israel had “taken the Middle East to the edge of the precipice with the threat of a regional war greater than ever”, said Maha Yahya, director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Centre, a Beirut-based think tank.

For years, Iran’s reactions to Israel’s bombardment of its positions in Syria, and those of Hezbollah in Lebanon, had “remained muted” as it built up its strategic partnerships across the region and sought to avoid an all-out regional conflict that could draw in the United States and other global actors, she said.