India election: will lower voter turnout make Modi ‘jittery’ and dent BJP’s chances of winning a majority?
- Phase two of voting saw a 65 per cent turnout, with heat and complacency of BJP supporters among possible reasons for the lower figure
- Analysts caution against reading too much into the figures, even as the BJP appears to have taken steps to drum up support among majority Hindus
India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has banked on the immense popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to ensure it wins a majority in parliament in this year’s general election, but analysts say a drop in voter turnout could make the party “jittery” about achieving that goal.
Voter turnout in phase two on Friday was about 65 per cent, compared to 69 per cent five years ago. Ballots were cast in a number of the BJP stronghold states, including parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.
The turnout in the first phase was also about 65 per cent, compared to 69 per cent in the 2019 election, showing a clear pattern of lower voter enthusiasm in the initial phase, according to preliminary estimates.
“There is a complete absence of an overarching national narrative. It has reasons to make the incumbent or the front runner a bit jittery,” said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, an author and independent political analyst. “Normally, a front runner can sweep up everything if there is a single issue.”
But Mukhopadhyay said the trend so far suggested that the ongoing election was being fought on an aggregation of issues across various constituencies in which the quality of the local leadership could make a difference to the final outcome.