South Korea ‘sensing geopolitical uncertainty’ avoids committing in potential Taiwan crisis, maintains mainland China ties

With wars raging in Ukraine, the Middle East, and an emboldened North Korea, it is prudent Seoul not get involved in a potential Taiwan crisis, one expert said
The analyst added, a war in the Taiwan Strait could lead to a full-blown conflict, due to growing North Korea-Russia ties, and a North Korean-Chinese leaders’ meeting

South Korea

Maria Siow

Published: 8:00am, 2 May 2024

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Seoul’s reluctance to commit itself in the event of a Taiwan crisis, despite being an American ally, stems from its need to remain prudent amid uncertainty over ongoing global conflicts, the coming US presidential election and a potentially emboldened North Korea.

Warning that a war in the Taiwan Strait would escalate into full-blown conflict, analysts also said South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, fresh off a pummelling at the polls, should show that he can maintain his ties with Beijing ahead of a trilateral summit.

South Korea’s Minister of National Defence Shin Won-sik downplayed his country’s resolve to intervene in such a scenario, during a TV interview on April 21, adding that if a crisis occurred, Seoul’s paramount concern was “observing the possibility of North Korean provocations”.

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Shin added that South Korea will work with the United States to create a strong defence strategy, and said Seoul is focused on maintaining national security as part of “upholding global security”.

Seong-Hyon Lee, visiting scholar at the Harvard University Asia Centre, said South Korea’s reservations in getting involved in a Taiwan crisis stemmed from “uncertainty” as wars rage in Ukraine and the Middle East, and November’s US elections loom.

“South Korea is sensing geopolitical uncertainty,” he said, noting that Seoul was “toning down the rhetoric” on Taiwan so as not to inject uncertainty that could “easily turn into volatility”.

Such prudence, Lee noted, was also observed by the US during Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing in late April, as well as Japan.

Before Blinken’s three-day visit to China, US officials pointed to a period of relative calm in the Taiwan Strait over the past few months, after years of aggressive Chinese military manoeuvres and threats.

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During Blinken’s visit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi outlined Chinese concerns about US policies on the South China Sea and Taiwan, adding that mainland China’s “core interests are facing challenges”.

Just hours after Blinken departed on Saturday, Taiwan reported a sudden surge of military activity, with a dozen Chinese warplanes flying sorties close to the island.

Lee said that given the defeat of President Yoon’s People Power Party during last month’s National Assembly elections, the South Korean leader needed “to show that he can manage relations with China”, especially ahead of a trilateral leadership summit between China, Japan and South Korea later this month.

Jae-Jeok Park, an associate professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at South Korea’s Yonsei University, said North Korea could take advantage of a Taiwan crisis, by taking over disputed islands near the Northern Limit Line, the maritime border between the two Koreas.

President of South Korea Yoon Suk-yeol needs to show he can manage his ties with Beijing. Photo: TNS

“Preparing against a possible attack from North Korea is helping the US in Taiwan indirectly,” Park said, noting that Washington could then utilise its forces without worrying about North Korean provocation.

“Sending troops to Taiwan is not the only way we can support the US in Taiwan. Preventing North Korea from attacking South Korea is an indirect and important way to support the US in Taiwan,” Park said.

If South Korean troops were sent to Taiwan, Park predicted that Seoul would have little wiggle room.

“South Korea would not have space to consider China’s strategic position … [Seoul] would have no choice but to side with the US,” Park said.

Alexander M. Hynd, a postdoctoral research fellow at the University of New South Wales in Australia, said that under the US-South Korea alliance, Seoul was keen to maximise its diplomatic independence from America while holding onto Washington’s security guarantee.

“It is not in South Korea’s interests to commit itself prematurely to joining a US military action,” said Hynd, who specialises in Asia-Pacific’s international relations and politics.

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“If the US were later seen to put pressure on South Korea to change its stance on this issue, then South Korea could not only use this as bargaining leverage with Washington, but also minimise the diplomatic fallout in Beijing,” Hynd said.

Chinese state tabloid the Global Times in August called on South Korea to “remain rational and clear-headed” not only for its own sake but also for the interests of the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia.

Calling on Seoul to oppose all forms of the “new Cold War” ahead of the Camp David Summit between the US, Japan and South Korea held in August, the editorial accused Washington and Tokyo of having “hidden motives” and “manipulating events in the shadows”.

Full-fledged war in Taiwan

Unlike the ongoing war in Ukraine, Lee said a war in the Taiwan Strait was unlikely to be a limited but would likely be a full-blown conflict, due to the growing ties between North Korea and Russia, and the expected summit between the North Korean and Chinese leaders later this year.

“North Korea is likely to be more emboldened” by attacking South Korea to divert US attention, Lee added.

Pyongyang had shipped about 7,000 containers filled with munitions and other military equipment to Russia since last year to help support Moscow’s war in Ukraine, defence minister Shin said in March.

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In return, Russia had provided North Korea with food, raw materials and parts used to make weapons, as well as assisting in Pyongyang’s illegal satellite launches.

Last month, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s meeting with China’s No 3 official Zhao Leji in Pyongyang was seen as a sign that Kim might be preparing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping this year.

“South Korea will be facing not just nuclear-armed North Korea, but also Russia and China that are backing North Korea,” Lee said, noting that in a Taiwan war, South Korea would be at the forefront of the “northern theatre” facing North Korea and Russia, while the US and Japan would be facing the “southern theatre” near the Taiwan Strait.

“It will be a difficult war for every party involved, and the best hope is to prevent it from happening,” Lee warned.