Is war between Israel and Hezbollah imminent? Risky tit-for-tat leaves region on edge
- A ‘deep change in Lebanese realities’ is required to prevent further escalation of hostilities between the feuding sides, analysts say
With Israel’s military operations winding down in Gaza after eight months of bloodshed, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is one step away from ordering an air and land incursion into southern Lebanon to push the forces of Iranian ally Hezbollah back from its border.
Fears of war between Israel and Hezbollah, the world’s most powerful non-state militia, have grown in recent weeks amid the most intense exchanges of cross-border fire seen since the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war in October.
Diplomatic efforts by the United States and France have thus far dissuaded Netanyahu from using military power to force Hezbollah to withdraw its troops some 10km away from Israel’s border to the northern bank of the River Litani, in accordance with the terms of the UN-brokered peace deal which ended their last war in 2006.
But US envoy Amos Hochstein was widely reported to have conveyed an Israeli ultimatum to Nabih Berri, the speaker of Lebanon’s parliament and a political ally of Hezbollah, when they met in Beirut on Tuesday.
Parallel to his visit, Israel’s military announced on Tuesday that “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon” had been approved by top generals.
The same day, Hezbollah released a 10-minute video of Israel’s main commercial port of Haifa, located 28km south of the Lebanese border, claiming it had been filmed by a drone that had evaded Israeli air defences.