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No more South China Sea ‘flip-flopping’? Philippines plans long-term post-Marcos strategy

After swinging between Beijing and Washington, Manila seeks a steadier maritime policy that will endure beyond the current administration

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Philippine coastguard (PCG) personnel man the deck of a patrol vessel in Manila Bay last month. Photo: EPA-EFE
The Philippines is drafting a long-term strategy to safeguard its claims in the South China Sea, aiming to preserve its assertive maritime stance beyond the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, according to the country’s national security chief.

The move, observers said, could help Manila avoid the “pendulum” swing that had seen its foreign policy shift repeatedly between Washington and Beijing in recent years, and instead forge a more consistent approach rooted in national interest.

At a security forum on Tuesday, National Security Adviser Eduardo Año said the initiative was a direct response to “China’s baseless, excessive and expansive territorial claims, militarisation, and confrontations with its neighbours”.

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Año, who also heads the National Security Council, cited Beijing’s activities in Scarborough Shoal – known in the Philippines as Bajo de Masinloc – where Chinese coastguard and militia vessels have maintained a presence since a 2012 stand-off.

“[Their presence] is a clear contrast to what we advance in our collective pursuit of a stable, just and rules-based maritime order,” Año said. “Even more concerning, our other rightful territories, not just Bajo de Masinloc, have been subjected to adverse claims and illegal occupation or control.”

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The South China Sea has long been a source of friction between the Philippines and China due to overlapping territorial claims. Manila refers to its claimed portion as the West Philippine Sea, and has accused Beijing of increasingly aggressive grey-zone tactics – coercive measures that stop short of open conflict – to assert control over it in recent years.
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