Japan’s next leader? LDP showdown pits Abe protégé against reformist scion

Recent polls suggest the party’s voters will decide between Sanae Takaichi’s conservative vision and Shinjiro Koizumi’s centrist appeal

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Japan’s Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (left) and former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi are seen before the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election candidate debate in Tokyo on Wednesday. Photo: AFP

Published: 8:00am, 29 Sep 2025

As Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party begins the process of selecting a new leader – and by extension, the country’s next prime minister – the race is quickly shaping into a duel between a conservative heir to Shinzo Abe’s legacy and a reformist standard-bearer promising broader appeal within the divided party.

The party’s internal election on October 4 follows Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation after barely a year in office, with the winner expected to assume leadership through a parliamentary vote.

Whoever takes the helm will face a daunting set of challenges – from stubborn inflation and a volatile regional security environment to managing ties with US President Donald Trump.

The five contenders are Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi; former economic security ministers Sanae Takaichi and Takayuki Kobayashi; Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi; and former LDP secretary general Toshimitsu Motegi.

From left: Japan’s former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, former LDP secretary general Toshimitsu Motegi, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, and Japan’s Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi take part in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election candidate debate in Tokyo on Wednesday. Photo: AFP

But early polls suggest a two-horse race. Koizumi leads with 23.8 per cent support, followed closely by Takaichi at 21 per cent, according to recent surveys. The remaining candidates trail in the single digits.

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