Protest fury pushes Iran to the edge of ‘social revolution’
Weakened by conflict with Israel and a plummeting currency, analysts say the regime faces a choice between radical reform or collapse
In the absence of any coordinated opposition, analysts say the demonstrations are being propelled by a deep sense of social injustice at the growing gulf between ordinary Iranians struggling to survive and the insulated privileges of the ruling elite.
Farzan Sabet, a managing researcher at the Geneva-based Global Governance Centre, warned that “conditions in Iran today are extreme and will likely continue deteriorating” this year.
“Foreseeable events could create the conditions for further foreign intervention, military and elite action and defection, and escalating protests,” Sabet said in a social media post on December 29, a day after the protests erupted.
He believes the prospects for systemic change are now “at their highest since the Islamic Republic’s first decade of revolution and war – and growing”.
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of the London-based Bourse and Bazaar Foundation, similarly argued that “progress is being made towards some kind of fundamental political change in Iran”.