Philippines enters its ‘hour of danger’ in Marcos vs Duterte clash
Analysts warn of a ‘very messy year’ ahead as coup fears swirl, the economy falters and political warfare rages out in the open
“It will be a very messy year both in politics and the economy,” Philippine Congressman Edgar Erice told This Week in Asia.
Analysts say those numbers translate into a plausible pathway to the presidency for Duterte at the next election in 2028, a pathway that Marcos appears determined to block.
It is their “ora de peligro”, according to economic risk analyst Jonathan Ravelas – distilling the political peril into a common Filipino expression, derived from Spanish, that translates to “hour of danger”.
The two camps are preparing for mutually assured destruction. Both face threats ranging from impeachment complaints and criminal prosecutions to military intervention, set against a backdrop of the economy’s weakening fundamentals, shifting loyalty networks and unforeseen natural disasters.