Iran conflict puts India’s cherished Middle East neutrality to the test

For years, India has prided itself on a foreign policy doctrine of “dehyphenation”: maintaining productive, parallel relations with conflicting countries such as Israel, Iran and the Arab Gulf states without letting any one bilateral tie poison the others. That doctrine is now being tested to the limit. The killing of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by US-Israeli strikes within days of Narendra Modi returning from a high-profile visit to Tel Aviv provided instant ammunition for the Indian prime minister’s political opposition. “Two days after Mr Modi celebrated his visit to Israel, Israel and the US have begun their joint assault on Iran,” Jairam Ramesh, general secretary of the Congress party, wrote on social media on Saturday. “This was fully expected given their military build-up in the last few months,” he said, calling the timing of Modi’s trip “shameful” in light of the strikes that followed. Had a telephone call with PM Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the current regional situation. Conveyed India's concerns over recent developments and emphasised the safety of civilians as a priority. India reiterates the need for an early cessation of hostilities.@netanyahu — Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) March 1, 2026 Modi’s government, for its part, has said India is “deeply concerned” about the Iran conflict and called for restraint and dialogue. On Monday morning, Modi posted that he had spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and “conveyed India’s concerns over recent developments”, stressing “the need for an early cessation of hostilities”. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar reportedly spoke separately to his Israeli and Iranian counterparts, reiterating New Delhi’s call for de-escalation and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. Arms, ports, people Israel ranks among India’s top defence and technology partners. India is its largest buyer of defence equipment – accounting for roughly 34 per cent of Israeli arms exports according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute – and second-largest trading partner in Asia, with bilateral trade estimated at around US$5 billion in 2025. During Modi’s two-day visit to Israel, where he addressed the Knesset and received Israel’s highest parliamentary honour, a suite of deals was signed, including agreements to expand the use of India’s home-grown digital payment system, Unified Payments Interface, and launch the first round of talks on a proposed free trade pact. Iran, meanwhile, is a partner in the strategically located Chabahar Port project, which gives India overland access to Afghanistan and Central Asia while bypassing Pakistan. At the same time, the wider Gulf region is home to roughly 9 million Indian nationals who collectively account for tens of billions of US dollars’ worth of remittances to the South Asian nation’s economy each year. Trade is also a factor. India’s trade with the United Arab Emirates, which has been repeatedly targeted by Iranian drones and missiles in recent days, stands at around US$110 billion. India has historically viewed Israel, Iran and the Gulf Arab states as “the three poles of power in West Asia”, according to Kabir Taneja, deputy director of the strategic studies programme at the Observer Research Foundation think tank in Delhi. “It will be difficult doing the traditional balancing act that India has been doing for decades,” he said. “There will be a new paradigm on the other side of this conflict. India will need to recalibrate for what comes on the other side.” The India-Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor and the I2U2 Group – a strategic partnership linking India, Israel, the UAE and the US – had already been pushed to the back burner by successive regional crises, Taneja said. Getting them back on track would be “easier said than done”, he added. Choosing sides does not help in such conflicts Anil Trigunayat, former Indian diplomat Others see India’s “dehyphenation” doctrine as more durable. Anil Trigunayat, a former Indian diplomat, said promoting dialogue and diplomacy was precisely the point of Modi’s visit to Israel. “Choosing sides does not help in such conflicts,” he said of the US-Israel-Iran clash. “Quiet diplomacy works better.” Suresh Rangarajan, head of international relations at Kerala Central University, went further, dismissing any causal link between Modi’s visit and the recent escalation in hostilities. “West Asia was flaring up for a long time, especially since the US was pressurising Iran to sign a nuclear deal,” Rangarajan said. “It doesn’t mean that India wants war,” he added, arguing that Delhi sought access to Israeli defence technology while maintaining cordial relations with Iran. ‘A very lonely war’ Iran “is likely to fight a very lonely war”, according to Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, founder and president of the Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies in Goa. “Delhi is strategically positioned to call for a cessation of violence and a return to diplomacy, fully aware that neither the US nor Israel is likely to heed such calls,” she said. “Tehran may not appreciate India’s neutrality. However, under the circumstances, it has little leverage.” Other analysts cautioned against drawing firm conclusions while the conflict continued to evolve. Indian policymakers “will be monitoring to see whether the air campaign intensifies with the death of Khamenei or comes to a halt”, said Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute, a US public policy think tank. “All parties with diplomatic interests on both sides of the Gulf will be watching and waiting before they calculate any potential next steps, given the sheer unpredictability of what may happen next.” He added that Delhi might ultimately calculate that deepening economic and security integration with Israel outweighed any regional or domestic political fallout – particularly as its relationships with Gulf states, including the UAE, had grown considerably stronger in their own right.

Iran conflict puts India’s cherished Middle East neutrality to the test

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}New Delhi has long prided itself on being friends with everyone in the Middle East. The killing of Khamenei just made that much harder

New Delhi has long prided itself on being friends with everyone in the Middle East. The killing of Khamenei just made that much harder