Why US policy on India aims to avoid repeat of China ‘mistake’

A warning by a senior US official that the Trump administration would not repeat with India the “mistakes” it made in its past dealings with China signals that Washington would not allow New Delhi’s rise to come at the expense of its strategic interests. Speaking at a conference on international politics and economics in Delhi on Friday, Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said the US wanted to work with India to unlock its “limitless potential”. But he added at the Raisina Dialogue: “We are not going to make the same mistakes with India that we made with China 20 years ago.” Landau’s comments indicate that while the US may pursue a closer trade relationship with India, it could implement wide-ranging curbs on the bilateral cooperation, according to analysts. Such a view also reflects common perceptions in Washington that the US has helped fuel China’s integration into the global economy without sufficient safeguards, consequently creating a powerful rival. As such, the US may impose restrictions on market access, technology transfer and economic concessions on India to prevent a repeat of China’s ascendancy, analysts say. Currently the world’s fourth-largest economy, India is expected to move up a notch by 2030, with a GDP of about US$7.3 trillion, according to a media release issued by Delhi. India’s GDP likely ranged between US$4.1 trillion and US$4.3 trillion last year, according to several estimates. C. Uday Bhaskar, director of the Society for Policy Studies in New Delhi, said Landau’s remarks pointed to a new template on how the US would conduct its ties with India. This arose because Washington’s earlier engagement with China had been “strategically feckless”, according to Bhaskar. “The US engaged with China in a commercially enthusiastic manner when Beijing opened its economy to Western capitalism in 1979/80, and the American private sector led the charge,” he said. “Washington likely does not want to repeat that pattern with India.” As the trade agreement reached between the US and India was interim, Washington’s policy on the transfer of artificial intelligence and advanced technology to New Delhi was unclear for now, Bhaskar said. Last month, both countries agreed to an interim trade agreement under which tariffs on certain Indian exports to the US would be cut to 18 per cent from 50 per cent, subject to Delhi halting its purchases of Russian oil. India has pledged to buy US$500 billion of US energy, aircraft and hi-tech products over the next five years. After the US-Israel strikes on Iran, Washington granted Delhi a 30-day waiver to purchase Russian oil cargoes already at sea, even as the US continues to push India to reduce its reliance on Russian crude and buy more from the American energy sector. Richard Rossow, a senior adviser at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said Landau’s remarks were a departure from how earlier US administrations had viewed the relationship. “For more than 20 years, senior American policymakers who drove the relationship with India realised the payoff largely lies in the future,” Rossow said. “However, the Trump administration has a much more transactional approach.” While previous administrations were more willing to accept a near-term trade imbalance for longer-term strategic gains, the current administration under US President Donald Trump wanted a faster resolution on the issue, Rossow said. India’s surplus in its trade with the US may rise to US$90 billion annually in future, according to a report by the State Bank of India, from a US$40 billion surplus in the 2025 financial year. Antonio Fatas, professor of economics at INSEAD, said Landau’s comments had signalled that the US was facing a dilemma and could do little to stem the rise of India as an economic powerhouse. Referring to the success of the Chinese economy, Fatas added: “What they are saying is ‘do not become like China’, which does not mean anything.” Srividya Jandhyala, an associate professor of management at ESSEC Business School’s Asia-Pacific campus in Singapore, said the US and India could face hurdles ahead in reaching a trade deal and other areas of cooperation. “Doing so requires not just both parties recognising what the other needs or wants but also evaluating what each is willing to give up to gain something else. The win-win expected from international trade and investment is harder to achieve when negotiating parties have less negotiating room,” Jandhyala said. As such, Indian tech companies could find it challenging to acquire more advanced capabilities and top talent if the US and other countries were to tighten access to their technology, she added. But Rossow said the dynamics would change after Trump’s exit from the White House, with the broader relationship between the US and India becoming more even-handed. “I suspect future US administrations will resume with a longer-term approach to the relationship, realising we will need to ‘give more than we get’ in the short term.”

Why US policy on India aims to avoid repeat of China ‘mistake’

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Despite official saying the US wants to work with India, it is likely to maintain a ‘transactional approach’ towards New Delhi, analysts say

Despite official saying the US wants to work with India, it is likely to maintain a ‘transactional approach’ towards New Delhi, analysts say