Iran war nears 3-front tipping point as Gulf energy hubs burn

Three weeks into the Iran war, tit-for-tat escalations on multiple fronts have dragged the Middle East to the brink of the region-wide conflict that its governments have repeatedly warned about – and tried to avert – since Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023.

Israel has launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon in recent days, after Hezbollah entered the conflict in response to the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Iraq has been turned into a shooting range, as Iran-allied militias exchange missile fire with US and Kurdish forces also facing cross-border attacks by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Sandwiched between the two countries, Syria’s revolutionary government is watching with trepidation. Damascus has massed forces along its border with Lebanon to contain any spillover from the Israeli invasion, while working diplomatic channels with Baghdad to dissuade Tehran-aligned Iraqi militias from targeting Syrian territory.

The opening of a western front in Lebanon is intensifying concerns across the region that events in the Gulf could soon draw in Yemen’s Houthis, establishing a third southern theatre of war.

The trigger could yet prove to be Israeli air strikes on Wednesday against Iranian production facilities at the vast South Pars/North Dome field, the largest known gas reserve in the world that Iran shares with Qatar.