What Pakistani jets in Saudi Arabia mean for Gulf security in Iran war

Pakistan’s deployment of an air force contingent at a base on Saudi Arabia’s Gulf coast, coming as it mediated talks between Iran and the US, could force Tehran to reconsider its strategy of attacking critical energy infrastructure in the kingdom, analysts say. While purely defensive in nature, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) task force posed a poignant question to Tehran: if hostilities resumed, would it be prepared to risk shooting down warplanes belonging to the peacemaking country it clearly trusts? According to Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher at the University of Technology Sydney, the PAF’s deployment was “defensive in nature and it will be reassuring” to Saudi Arabia, which has been shaken by Iranian strikes on its oil fields in Eastern Province. The PAF presence “will complicate Iran’s targeting calculus with respect to Saudi Arabia, as Tehran would now have to factor in potential hits on Pakistani jets”, he said. Analysts said Tehran would not want to antagonise Islamabad. Pakistan has “stepped into its role as a responsible regional power”, capable of mediating between Iran and the US, while “also honouring its commitments” to Saudi Arabia, noted Ali Alfoneh, a political scientist and author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The presence of Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed bin Abdullah al-Jadaan in Islamabad last week, coinciding with the arrival of the Iranian delegation, “may further indicate parallel Pakistani mediation” between Tehran and Riyadh, Alfoneh said. “This reflects a high degree of diplomatic sophistication.” Despite that, analysts said it was highly unlikely that Iran received advance notice of the PAF warplanes’ flight over the Gulf. Observers tracking aircraft movements on social media with the help of commercial sources first noted the presence of three PAF C-130 transport aircraft and two PAF Ilyushin Il-78 air refuelling tankers over the northern Gulf on Friday. No fighter aircraft were spotted because the pilots had evidently turned off their Automatic Identification System transponders, they surmised. The Saudi defence ministry announced the PAF deployment on Saturday. The arrival of the PAF task force, including “fighter and support aircraft”, would “strengthen joint military coordination and elevate operational readiness between the Saudi and Pakistani armed forces to further support regional and international security and stability”, an official statement said. Islamabad has not yet commented on the PAF deployment, the exact composition of which has not been made public. Pakistan operates US-made F-16s, Chinese J-10Cs, and JF-17s co-developed with China, along with Swedish Saab 2000 Erieye airborne early warning and control aircraft. They were used to great diplomatic effect during the comings and goings of the aircraft carrying the US and Iranian delegations to Pakistan. Six PAF F-16s escorted US Vice-President J.D. Vance’s Air Force 2 aircraft while it was in Pakistani airspace, and nine JF-17s escorted the Iranian delegation all the way home to Tehran after peace talks ended in a stalemate on Sunday. Faisal said the PAF had considerable experience in operating this eclectic mix of Chinese, European and US aircraft “as part of a single strike package”. The PAF would “employ its experience” gained during the brief air war with India last May to manage the operational challenges in Saudi Arabia. He expected the PAF contingent to perform roles such as military strategy planning, exercises and combat patrols with the Royal Saudi Air Force. For now, the geographic focus will be the Eastern Province and strengthening aerial security for Saudi oil fields and associated infrastructure, Faisal said. Analysts said the Pakistani deployment was being viewed as a test case by other Gulf Arab states as they pondered how to diversify their defence alliances after unwittingly becoming collateral damage of the war launched by their key security partner US, alongside Israel, on February 28. Until Islamabad arranged a two-week ceasefire, which took effect on Wednesday, the Gulf monarchies had endured far more Iranian drone and missile attacks than Israel, the main protagonist. Most of these attacks targeted oil, gas and petrochemical production facilities that their economies depend on. Analysts told This Week in Asia that Pakistan’s role as peacemaker, and also peacekeeper in the case of Saudi Arabia, established a template that other Gulf Cooperation Council states could emulate. Dania Thafer, executive director of the Washington-based Gulf International Forum, said the PAF deployment, while specific to Saudi Arabia under their mutual defence pact, raised the prospect of similar Pakistani defensive help to other Gulf states in the Iranian firing line. “Perhaps Bahrain could be part of the calculation, but that is very unclear,” she said. Qatar, on the other hand, would “emphasise” its security relationship with Turkey, the other key mediating state. “But, of course, in these times the shock of the war could change the calculus of the Gulf states to see where they can diversify their defensive capabilities,” Thafer said. Kuwaiti analysts have also been debating on social media the pros and cons of a prospective defence pact with Pakistan. Faisal thought it was “highly likely” that Pakistan’s role in the Gulf’s security architecture would grow in coming years. Pakistan-Saudi Arabia defence cooperation “sets a template that other Gulf states can also emulate”. However, the level and nature of defence cooperation was “foremost a political decision, and any such expansion will take place in consultation with Saudi Arabia”, Faisal said.

What Pakistani jets in Saudi Arabia mean for Gulf security in Iran war

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Analysts say the Pakistani air force’s presence ‘will complicate Iran’s targeting calculus’ and force it to reconsider its attack strategy

Analysts say the Pakistani air force’s presence ‘will complicate Iran’s targeting calculus’ and force it to reconsider its attack strategy