What does North Korea get from its blossoming ties with Russia?

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s latest message of reassurance to Russian President Vladimir Putin, coming shortly after Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Pyongyang, constitutes a form of strategic hedging, according to observers. The letter suggested that Pyongyang-Moscow ties were evolving beyond a largely transactional relationship into a firm military alliance, even as North Korea sought to rekindle its traditional “blood alliance” with China, they said. In a congratulatory message sent on the occasion of Russia Day on June 12, Kim pledged unwavering support for Moscow’s policies and vowed that North Korea would “always stand together with the Russian Federation”. The relationship between the two countries was being “further strengthened into sincere and devoted relations of comradely trust and alliance, opening a new chapter of history”, Kim wrote, according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). He attributed the deepening relationship to both sides honouring their obligations under the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty signed during their summit in Pyongyang in June 2024. Kim further stressed that it was his “unwavering will” and the position of his government to “fully support Moscow’s domestic and foreign policies and to always stand together with the Russian Federation”. He concluded by expressing hope that “the brotherly Russian people will enjoy only success and victory on the road ahead” and wished Putin “even greater achievements in his responsible work”. Hedging bets Kim appeared to be signalling that North Korea’s ties with Russia were evolving into a military alliance that could rival – or even surpass – its traditional “blood alliance” with China forged during the Korean war, said Oh Gyeong-seob, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification. “He is sending a message to Moscow that North Korea’s ties with Russia are stronger than those with China in order to ease concerns that Pyongyang might be drifting back into Beijing’s orbit following Kim’s summit with Xi,” Oh said. Beijing remains reluctant to violate international sanctions imposed on North Korea over its nuclear programme, while Russia itself is heavily sanctioned by the West. This shared status reduces Moscow’s incentive to enforce sanctions against Pyongyang and lowers the economic and reputational costs of cooperation in breach of sanctions. “Kim is telling Moscow that North Korea’s ties with Russia cannot be replaced by its relations with China and that he will seek to improve ties with Beijing on the basis of his alliance with Moscow,” Oh said. “He is also suggesting that, in the face of common adversaries – the United States and Japan – the three countries will cooperate in promoting a multipolar world order.” When Kim met Xi in Pyongyang on Monday, he described relations with China as North Korea’s “foremost strategic undertaking” and vowed to spare no effort in building ties into a “model of interstate relations”. Both leaders agreed to place bilateral relations “on a more solid basis”, expand cooperation in politics, economy, culture and other fields, support each other’s sovereignty, security and development interests, and “open a new chapter” in bilateral relations. The term “denuclearisation” was notably absent – a sharp departure from Xi’s 2019 visit to Pyongyang. Kim also pledged that “no matter how the situation changes, we will fully support and endorse China’s policies based on the one-China principle”. This could be interpreted as saying that “in exchange for North Korea supporting the one-China principle, China effectively recognises North Korea as a nuclear-armed state”, according to Yang Moo-jin, emeritus professor at the University of North Korean Studies. ‘Tacit acceptance’ Possibly out of consideration for Russia, North Korean media conspicuously omitted any reference to Xi proposing military exchanges. Instead, reports focused on an agreement to hold commemorative events marking the 65th anniversary of the signing of the North Korea-China Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance on July 11, a pact that includes provisions for mutual aid in the event of war. “North Korea is obtaining security commitments from Russia, economic benefits from China, and from both countries a tacit acceptance of its nuclear arsenal,” Yang said. “Kim is also sending a message to Washington that both China and Russia have his back.” Kim’s ability to engage in high-level diplomacy with China for tangible benefits to ordinary North Koreans without touching on the denuclearisation or sanctions “moves North Korea another step closer to being accepted as a more normal country”, Jenny Town, senior fellow and director of the 38 North programme, wrote on Wednesday. “Despite the symbolism and pageantry of the summit, Xi and Kim do not appear to have a deep rapport with each other, although they both understand the strategic value of their cooperation,” she said. “Given the discrepancies in how each side framed the summit’s outcomes, there still seems to be a lot of ground to cover in rebuilding this relationship.” The absence of a joint statement suggested China and North Korea were not on the same page regarding the nuclear issue, said Koh Yu-hwan, an emeritus professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University. “Beijing perceives the consolidation of the new Cold War bloc – China, Russia and North Korea vs the United States, Japan and South Korea – as a strategic burden as it is emerging as a new power comprising the Global South in a multipolar world,” Koh said. Despite North Korea’s rapidly deepening ties with Russia, however, China remains its largest trading partner and principal economic patron. Pyongyang continues to depend on China for most of its trade, the volume of which reportedly rose in April to its highest level in eight years, including imports of consumer goods such as smartphones.

What does North Korea get from its blossoming ties with Russia?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Kim’s Russia Day message seeks to reassure Putin that ties are evolving beyond transactional into a firm military alliance, experts say

Kim’s Russia Day message seeks to reassure Putin that ties are evolving beyond transactional into a firm military alliance, experts say