How North Korean POWs caught Seoul in a Ukraine arms ‘conundrum’

Ukraine’s unresolved decision regarding two North Korean prisoners of war who have said they want to go to South Korea has given Kyiv leverage as it presses Seoul to sell weapons for its war against Russia, observers say. The soldiers, captured in early 2025 after being deployed to Kursk to support Russia’s war effort, are considered South Korean nationals under Seoul’s constitution, which defines the entire Korean peninsula as the country’s territory. Seoul has said it would be willing to accept the soldiers if they chose to defect. While Ukraine has indicated it will not forcibly repatriate North Korean POWs against their will, it has yet to make a final decision on the two soldiers’ fate because the issue is also tied to prisoner exchange negotiations with Russia. Kyiv’s campaign for South Korean arms has gained urgency as it struggles to secure enough affordable weapons from Western partners, while Seoul remains wary of sending lethal aid to an active war zone. The European Union is also pressing Seoul to allow arms shipments to Ukraine, with a possible contract to build submarines for Canada seen by observers as a potential incentive. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha’s recent visit to Seoul formed part of Kyiv’s efforts to persuade South Korea to sell its “K-weapons”, which observers describe as cost-effective, technologically advanced and capable of quicker delivery than those of many competitors. Sybiha and his South Korean counterpart, Cho Hyun, agreed on Tuesday to “seek a resolution to the issue of North Korean prisoners of war in Ukraine in a manner consistent with international law and humanitarian principles, while respecting the free will of the individuals concerned”, South Korea’s foreign ministry said in a readout. “The two sides also exchanged in-depth views on the war in Ukraine and major regional developments, including those on the Korean peninsula.” In North Korea, being captured alive is considered an act of disloyalty, as soldiers are instructed to take their own lives rather than fall into enemy hands. If repatriated, the two POWs could face severe punishment. “Kyiv is apparently using the POW issue as leverage over Seoul to press South Korea to ease its restrictions on exporting weapons to Ukraine as it faces difficulties in securing arms from the West that are highly priced,” Doo Jin-ho, director of the Eurasia Research Centre at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, told This Week in Asia. For Seoul, such a demand would be difficult to accept because of legal and policy constraints on arms exports to countries at war, as well as concerns that it could irreparably damage its already frozen ties with Russia, he said. The POWs are reportedly both low-ranking soldiers with limited intelligence value, and South Korea’s spy agency is believed to have interviewed them, but their case has taken on broader diplomatic significance. Sybiha sought to frame the issue as part of a shared security challenge, citing Moscow’s expanding military cooperation with Pyongyang during a visit to the heavily fortified inter-Korean border on Monday. “Through its involvement of [North Korea] in its war against Ukraine and by boosting the regime in Pyongyang, Moscow is exporting instability to the Korean peninsula,” he said, adding that Ukraine was ready to offer South Korea a “mutually beneficial security partnership”. Sybiha later visited the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, where he met senior officials from the think tank and said Russia was pressing hard for the return of the North Korean POWs. “Moscow is strongly demanding that the North Korean POWs be released to the Russian side, suggesting that in return, it would release many more Ukrainian POWs,” a well-informed source told This Week in Asia, citing Sybiha. “According to Foreign Minister Sybiha, Ukraine is willing to respond positively to Seoul’s request to send them to the South, but in that case, Ukrainian authorities would face domestic criticism for missing an opportunity to secure the release of more Ukrainian POWs,” the source said. Sybiha also underscored that Ukraine was gaining the upper hand in the drone war against Russia by deploying an expanding fleet of innovative, domestically produced drones. This advantage has significantly disrupted Russian supply lines and blunted Moscow’s offensive momentum. “He said Ukraine’s battlefield experience and expertise in drone warfare would be of great value to South Korea’s security,” the source said. “Kyiv is apparently making a sales pitch for its drone warfare experience and technology as a bargaining chip.” Doo noted that the EU was also pressing South Korea to provide military assistance to Ukraine, citing the deepening military alliance between Russia and North Korea. “Sybiha’s visit to Seoul is apparently aligned with the impending announcement of the successful bidder for the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project,” Doo said. South Korea and Germany are competing for a contract worth up to US$40 billion to build submarines for Canada. “South Korea is facing a diplomatic conundrum over this POW issue, where its ties with the EU, Russia, Ukraine, North Korea and Canada are all intertwined,” he said. Jeh Sung-hoon, a professor of Russian studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said Seoul was approaching the issue from a humanitarian perspective, while Kyiv sought to use it as a bargaining chip. “Ukraine is apparently seeking to strike a deal with South Korea, trading the POWs for Seoul’s support for the war effort against Russia,” Jeh said. “However, the South Korean government has little reason to hasten their transfer, which would attract extensive media attention, risk damaging relations with Moscow and heighten tensions with Pyongyang.” South Korea previously provided indirect support to Ukraine, primarily by lending or exporting artillery shells to the United States. This arrangement enabled Washington to replenish its depleted stockpiles while sending its own ammunition directly to Ukraine. However, President Lee Jae Myung’s administration is widely believed to have halted such indirect supplies of lethal weapons, limiting assistance to humanitarian aid and post-war reconstruction. “Ukraine is all out to drag the West, including South Korea and Japan, into the war effort against Russia as much as possible,” Jeh said. Kim Sae-me, a research fellow at the Centre for Foreign Policy and National Security at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said Sybiha’s trip to Seoul was intended to emphasise the need for greater cooperation as South Korea lagged behind other Indo-Pacific countries, including Japan, Australia and New Zealand, in supporting Ukraine’s resistance against Russian forces. “But South Korea has to be walking a tight diplomatic rope,” she said.

How North Korean POWs caught Seoul in a Ukraine arms ‘conundrum’

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Ukraine wants weapons in exchange for the soldiers, but analysts say South Korea fears provoking Russia and Pyongyang

Ukraine wants weapons in exchange for the soldiers, but analysts say South Korea fears provoking Russia and Pyongyang