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Tom Hussain

A US-Iran memorandum of understanding has left Gulf Arab states in an uncertain “new normal”, forcing them to support diplomatic talks that could give Tehran major leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite suffering billions of dollars in damage from Iranian strikes on American bases in the Middle East during the war, the monarchies also face growing calls in Washington for the withdrawal of US troops from their countries.
Under the MOU, Iraq, Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will hold negotiations on the future management of maritime traffic through the strait, a vital waterway for the export of energy from the region.
Iran’s parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf maintained that decisions over the strait’s management would be decided by Tehran, though it would consult GCC members and Iraq.
In an interview with state television on Monday, he reiterated Tehran’s claims of joint sovereignty with Oman over Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman are part of the GCC.
Iran will also charge fees for ships transiting the strait once the 60-day toll exemption specified in the MOU ends in mid-August.

Another point in the interim deal signed last month stated that American forces near the Islamic Republic would be removed if a comprehensive agreement over Iran’s nuclear programme is reached.
Iran’s attacks on these bases could cost an estimated between US$4 to US$9 billion, according to an initial assessment of satellite imagery published by the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies last week.
That analysis comes as calls grow in Washington for relocating some forces from vulnerable bases in the GCC states to less exposed sites in Israel, Cyprus and Greece.
“What you want to do is you want to spread out that necklace of bases far to the west, where you make it harder for the Iranians to see you, you make it harder for the Iranians to range you,” Kenneth McKenzie, retired general and a former US Central Command chief, told a virtual conference hosted on Monday by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
But Dania Thafer, executive director of the US-based think tank Gulf International Forum, said the move may not happen in the near term.
“The current military presence serves not only as a deterrent, but also as a source of leverage in ongoing negotiations with Iran,” Thafer said.
For Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of US risk consultancy Gulf State Analytics, it was “difficult to envision a complete withdrawal of US forces” from the GCC states.
Cafiero added that the UAE and Kuwait, which bore the brunt of Iran’s attacks during the nearly four-month war, “are likely to strengthen, rather than weaken, the case for deeper defence cooperation with Washington”.

Though the US largely failed to shield the two countries, they have “accepted the reality” that no other global power has the willingness and ability to replace Washington as a security guarantor on the Arabian Peninsula, he said.
He said any substantial reduction of the military presence in the Gulf could also “create opportunities for competitors or adversaries to expand their influence”, another worry for the US.
“Although some force posture adjustments or redeployments are certainly possible, I would not expect a wholesale US military disengagement from the Gulf.”
Thafer said the blunting of Iran’s missile and drone programmes and its regional proxies – Hezbollah, Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces and Yemen’s Houthis – had “considerably shifted the balance of power”.
According to Thafer, the US and GCC states have “gained valuable operational experience” in countering Iranian drones and missiles, investing heavily in missile defence, indigenous defence industries and integrated security capabilities.


‘Pragmatic’ approach
While the “threat has not disappeared”, the “Middle East is entering a new phase in which direct confrontation has increasingly replaced indirect competition”, she said.
Thafer noted that the US military presence remains “central to deterring” Iranian aggression, safeguarding maritime trade routes and preventing energy disruptions that could trigger broader economic consequences for both regional states and the global economy.
The Gulf Arab states’ divergent policy on Iran is further complicated by an unreliable US, its limited leverage over Tehran and their minimal say in the outcome of negotiations.
Qatar has indicated its willingness to engage economically with Tehran under the US$300 billion reconstruction fund proposed by the MOU with Washington, whereas Saudi Arabia is reluctant.
Such strategic disunity heightens risks that the GCC monarchies could remain destabilised – and their ambitious vision programmes for economic diversification derailed – by further conflict.
This leaves the Gulf states facing an uncertain “new normal”, with questions surrounding Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz continuing to “shape Gulf security thinking”, Cafiero said, prompting them to boost diplomatic engagement with Tehran.
This outreach will “not reflect any love for the Islamic Republic, but rather a pragmatic recognition” that Iran is a permanent neighbour whose behaviour has a direct impact on the Gulf’s security and economic interests, he said.
“Managing that relationship through sustained dialogue is, therefore, likely to be a goal shared by most, if not all, GCC members.”


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This Week in Asia

Politics

Analysts say GCC members face an uncertain ‘new normal’, prompting them to expand outreach to Tehran for long-term peace


Analysts say GCC members face an uncertain ‘new normal’, prompting them to expand outreach to Tehran for long-term peace.


Gulf states in a bind over Iran’s grip on Hormuz, US troop removal talks

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Analysts say GCC members face an uncertain ‘new normal’, prompting them to expand outreach to Tehran for long-term peace

Analysts say GCC members face an uncertain ‘new normal’, prompting them to expand outreach to Tehran for long-term peace