Johor election: where winning isn’t enough for Malaysia’s Barisan Nasional

Voters in Malaysia’s southern state of Johor will cast their ballots on Saturday in a high-stakes election that is expected to bring Barisan Nasional (BN) back to power, exposing deeper cracks in Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s administration. BN is part of Anwar’s unity government but will go head to head against federal partner Pakatan Harapan (PH) in a state long regarded as a BN stronghold. The contest for Johor’s 56-seat assembly has put Anwar’s multi-ethnic party in an awkward position, but analysts say the election is not about who would win but how big the win would be. Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, said for PH the benchmark was not forming the state government – which he described as “very impossible” – but winning more seats than it had held before dissolution. “For PH, a good result would be to win more than the 12 seats they had. If they win fewer than 12 seats, that would be a bad result,” he said. PH leaders have sought to frame the election as a fight for checks and balances rather than assuming control of the state government. Speaking to a largely ethnic Chinese crowd in the state capital of Johor Bahru late on Thursday, Anwar reprised his bullish broadside against BN, accusing his federal partner of “arrogance” in its southern bastion. “I have deliberately avoided commenting on parties in the coalition because we want stability in this country. But the display of arrogance of power here could no longer go unanswered,” the prime minister said. “I know it’s not easy to capture Johor, [but] we can change the political landscape [here]. We can rise as a force.” Voter turnout would be crucial, Azmi said. A higher turnout could improve BN’s chances as it needs its strong voter base to push it beyond the 40 seats it won in 2022. BN’s previous victory was secured with a 54.9 per cent turnout, far lower than the 84.5 per cent recorded when PH won in 2018, as PH voters chose to sit out the 2022 poll. The size of BN’s mandate could also shape perceptions of Johor’s ability to deliver its ambitious investment agenda and secure cooperation from the federal government. Malaysia’s second most populous state, with about 4.2 million people, sits at the country’s southern tip and is connected to Singapore by one of the world’s busiest land crossings. A strong BN result could give Johor leverage to press the federal government for faster execution on commitments. Money mandate Johor is counting on the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) to draw investments, create high-value jobs and strengthen bilateral ties with Singapore. The JS-SEZ had received stronger bilateral and institutional backing than the US$100 billion Forest City residential project within the zone that flopped due to policy reversals, weakened buyer sentiment and external shocks. Developer Country Garden had envisioned Forest City would house 700,000 residents, mainly Chinese nationals. But Chinese capital controls, policy uncertainty under then prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, the pandemic and China’s property downturn quashed its original ambitions. Today, an estimated 20,000 people live in Forest City. Anwar sought to revive the zone after becoming prime minister. He and his Singapore counterpart, Lawrence Wong, officially launched the JS-SEZ last year. To date, the zone has drawn nearly US$19 billion in approved investments, with 57 per cent of that having been realised, according to Malaysian government figures. Singapore-based firms account for a sizeable share, having committed over US$4.2 billion as of November 2025. Investors are observing the state and coming federal elections closely to gauge political stability, according to Hafidzi Razali, a strategic counsel involved in JS-SEZ investor facilitation. “There’s a risk of Forest City 2.0,” he said. While the JS-SEZ is backed federally as well as by BN and the Johor Palace, the real question is whether it can meet its assets under management targets and sustain investor interest over time. “For that minor unpredictability risk, I believe capital flow is not considering JS-SEZ as a top priority for now,” Hafidzi said. Immature infrastructure meant “there is no rush”. The delay in the JS-SEZ master plan’s release – the centre of a public spat between Johor caretaker chief minister Onn Hafiz Ghazi and Economy Minister Akmal Nasir – is something investors have taken note of. “Those who are not attuned to the reality of Malaysia’s political risk are still in watch-and-see mode, while those more aware are watching closely if a change of guard could affect delivery,” Hafidzi said. That makes the scale of BN’s expected victory as important as the result itself. A commanding mandate, indicating that Johor’s political direction remains stable, could keep investor sentiment high while a weaker showing could resurrect questions about the state government’s authority and its ability to secure federal cooperation. BN would need to surpass the 40-seat benchmark to assert its dominance, Azmi said. “If they form the government but win fewer than 40 seats, that would still mean a weak result because they would need to do better than what they achieved in the 2022 state election.”

Johor election: where winning isn’t enough for Malaysia’s Barisan Nasional

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Prime Minister Anwar has called on voters to take BN down a peg in its stronghold, accusing his federal partner of ‘arrogance of power’

Prime Minister Anwar has called on voters to take BN down a peg in its stronghold, accusing his federal partner of ‘arrogance of power’