Can Malaysia’s PAS deliver the votes in Negeri Sembilan despite Johor wipeout?

Malaysia’s largest Islamist party was wiped out in Johor’s state election last weekend, but PAS is now trying to turn that defeat into bargaining power. Its argument is that supporters who had no PAS candidate to vote for helped deliver a landslide victory to Barisan Nasional (BN), the coalition led by Umno, its long-time rival for Malay-Muslim voters. The two parties have spent years competing for influence among Malaysia’s Malay majority, but they have also explored cooperation when it serves their political interests. Fresh constituency-level data, however, raises doubts about whether PAS can reliably transfer its support to Umno when the two parties choose coordination over competition. That question now matters in neighbouring Negeri Sembilan, where voters go to the polls on August 1 and BN has left 11 of the state’s 36 seats open for potential partners. The opening became more pointed after BN announced on Wednesday night that it would contest only 25 constituencies, fuelling speculation that the remaining seats could be used to make room for PAS or other Malay-Muslim allies. At the candidates’ announcement, Malaysia’s Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan, who leads the state BN machinery, said the coalition would enter the election with an “understanding with friends”, but pointedly ruled out cooperation with Pakatan Harapan (PH), Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s multi-ethnic reformist coalition and BN’s nominal ally at the federal level. That has been read as an opening to other Malay-Muslim nationalist parties such as PAS and the rebranded Wawasan Negara Party, led by Opposition Leader Hamzah Zainuddin. PAS President Abdul Hadi Awang had on Monday cited positive discussions with BN, but BN Chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi denied concluding any formal agreement. “What was stated [by PAS] should not be accepted as an accurate statement, because we don’t have any agreement with PAS. Even if there are discussions, it’s just an understanding, we have not finalised anything,” Ahmad Zahid told reporters on Monday. Dr Sivamurugan Pandian of the Universiti Sains Malaysia’s School of Social Sciences described the conflicting messages as a “strategic divergence”, with PAS promoting cooperation and Umno avoiding commitment to formally reviving the Muafakat Nasional pact – the parties’ brief 2019 alliance aimed at consolidating the Malay vote to counter PH. “Both parties are keeping their options open,” Sivamurugan said. The manoeuvring has triggered a rupture within Perikatan Nasional (PN) – PAS’ formal coalition – with Bersatu also revealing on Wednesday that it would contest under its own logo, after accusing PAS of pursuing talks with BN without consulting its partners. Saturday’s nominations are expected to be the first test of whether PAS can deliver a transferable bloc of Malay-Muslim votes. Inconclusive data BN won 48 of 56 constituencies in the Johor election on July 11, a result PAS told reporters justified its strategy of asking supporters to vote for BN in seats where PN did not contest. Yet, the voting data provided limited support for PAS’ claim to being the decisive factor. According to tabulations by electoral consulting group Tindak Malaysia, of the 23 seats that PN did not contest in 2026, only five changed hands – four to BN and one from Muda to PH. Danesh Chacko, director of Tindak, said BN’s four gains had all been won by PH on pluralities, rather than outright majorities, in the 2022 state election. PAS had not contested any of those seats; Bersatu had stood in one and Gerakan in the other three. “The result could reflect several factors, such as higher turnout, opposition fragmentation and former PN supporters choosing to vote BN independently, rather than a direct transfer of PAS votes,” Chacko said. “At this stage, however, there is no clear evidence to conclude that former Gerakan or Bersatu voters shifted to BN because of PAS’s endorsement.” Tindak data, sourced from Election Commission information, also showed that results in the four constituencies PAS contested in 2022 were inconclusive because BN already held all four, making it difficult to separate any vote transfer benefiting BN from PAS. BN’s majorities in 2026 were far higher than PAS’ own vote share in 2022, while turnout increased in 2026 for some constituencies. “Mathematically, a PAS transfer would have been nice to have, but it was not essential,” Chacko said. PAS’ disciplined grass-roots network could nevertheless help BN, particularly in rural and semirural Malay-majority seats where relatively small shifts could determine the outcome, Sivamurugan said, describing Johor as a PAS-assisted “Malay tsunami”. Chacko, however, pointed to the higher turnout in 2026 and seats where BN’s majorities exceeded PAS’ vote share. “This means BN’s strength was strong enough to convert the previous group of voters who sat out from elections,” he said. Longer-term strategy For Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid, a political-science professor at Universiti Sains Malaysia’s School of Distance Education, PAS’ “sacrifice” narrative should be seen as a longer-term coalition strategy. “PAS recognises that its strongest support remains concentrated in northern and northeastern Peninsular Malaysia, limiting its ability to capture federal power independently,” he said. Cooperation with Umno, Ahmad Fauzi added, offered access to constituencies and government beyond PAS’ traditional strongholds. “The party is therefore prepared to accept Umno’s leadership and surrender immediate electoral opportunities for future seats, cabinet positions or political influence,” he said. “Why not sacrifice now? These are just some seats, but we can get something bigger later.” The move to present electoral retreat as service to Muslim unity also reflected PAS’ political adroitness in changing partners and accepting secondary status to advance its longer-term influence, Ahmad Fauzi noted. Negeri Sembilan will provide a more direct test. BN enters the election holding 14 seats and needs 19 to govern alone. Contesting 25 seats would give the party a safety margin, Ahmad Fauzi noted. “Meanwhile, they can then test the waters on cooperation with PAS and other parties in the other 11 they’re not contesting,” he said. Danesh identified five Negeri Sembilan state seats – including the Chennah constituency held by Transport Minister Anthony Loke – as possible pathways for BN to gain the five additional seats it requires. “The challenge here is most of the [five identified] seats were previously contested by non-PAS parties,” Danesh said, noting that PAS influence in these areas would be “limited” due to conflict with other PN component parties. Observers say the Negeri Sembilan poll will determine whether PAS’ strategy will work, and the first signs could come on nomination day. Indications of informal coordination could include PAS and Umno avoiding direct contests in selected seats, restrained campaigning or late candidate withdrawals that benefited one side, Sivamurugan noted. Fauzi said surprises remained possible until nominations closed. Ahmad Zahid, too, urged caution, warning on Monday that PAS “can change goalposts any time”.

Can Malaysia’s PAS deliver the votes in Negeri Sembilan despite Johor wipeout?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The party says it helped BN secure victory in Johor and has promoted cooperation with the coalition for the coming Negeri Sembilan election

The party says it helped BN secure victory in Johor and has promoted cooperation with the coalition for the coming Negeri Sembilan election