South Korea’s top conservative ‘a wounded lame duck’ after guilty verdict

A South Korean court’s conviction of Seoul’s mayor for illegal polling payments threatens to put an end to his presidential ambitions just weeks after he won a historic fifth term. Oh Se-hoon, the 65-year-old conservative who has led South Korea’s capital on and off for nearly two decades, was fined 10 million won (US$6,800) on Wednesday for violating the Political Funds Act ahead of the mayoral by-election in 2021. Under South Korean law, any elected official fined more than 1 million won for violating the Political Funds Act forfeits their office and faces a five-year election ban once the ruling is finalised on appeal. Should the Supreme Court uphold Wednesday’s verdict, Oh would be stripped of his position as Seoul’s mayor and forfeit any hope of winning a seat in the 2028 National Assembly elections or entering the next presidential race in 2030. Analysts said such an outcome could prove fatal to the People Power Party’s most viable path back to the presidency post-Yoon Suk-yeol. The case against Oh centred on political polls for his 2021 campaign conducted by political broker Myung Tae-kyun. Special prosecutors accused Oh of arranging for a supporter to pay Myung 33 million won for surveys delivered on 10 occasions with funds that were never legally declared as campaign finances. The court only partially accepted the prosecution’s allegations, however, finding Oh guilty of receiving polling services five times, worth 21 million won. This is an unpardonable offence Judge Cho Hyung-woo “This is an unpardonable offence,” presiding Judge Cho Hyung-woo said while delivering the verdict, adding that Oh had “consistently refused to acknowledge responsibility during the trial” despite being “well aware” of the law. “A sentence resulting in the loss of eligibility for public office is inevitable,” he added. Oh did not accept the verdict quietly, denouncing his accuser and pledging to fight the conviction. “I cannot accept this ruling, which was based on the false testimony of Mr Myung, a liar of the highest order,” he told reporters outside the courthouse. “I will contest it in the appeal trial.” Throughout the trial, Oh maintained that he had cut ties with Myung by February 2021 and that the disputed payments were his associate’s doing, made independently and without his knowledge. ‘Wounded lame duck’ Oh had just won a fifth, non-consecutive term as mayor in June’s local elections, defeating the ruling Democratic Party’s candidate Chong Won-o and cementing his status as the conservative opposition’s most popular elected official. The case will now pass to the Seoul High Court before a possible final appeal to the Supreme Court. If the conviction is ultimately upheld, Oh’s election would be declared invalid, triggering a by-election for a post widely regarded as the country’s second most influential elected office after the presidency. Until then, Oh occupies an uneasy purgatory. Jhee Byong-kuen, a political-science professor at Chosun University, called him “a wounded lame duck” with his authority steadily draining away as Seoul – and his party – waited to learn his fate. Unlike many senior figures in the conservative camp, Oh had sought to distance himself from former president Yoon’s disastrous martial law attempt in late 2024, which ended in impeachment and imprisonment. That positioning – combined with his administrative record and a reputation as a relatively moderate, centre-right conservative – had made him one of the People Power Party’s most viable future presidential candidates. Analysts are divided on what will happen next. Lim Sung-hack, a political-science professor at the University of Seoul, expects the verdict to backfire on the Democratic Party. “Many voters may view this court ruling as a politically motivated attempt to eliminate one of the conservative camp’s most popular presidential contenders,” he said, predicting “a political backlash” that could galvanise conservative supporters rather than dispirit them. Jhee agreed that the ruling would “substantially increase the likelihood that the Democratic Party will be able to consolidate its political dominance” through 2028 and 2030. “At the same time, the decision is likely to deepen political polarisation, with conservatives accusing the judiciary of acting as an instrument of the governing camp,” he added. Political commentator Kim Joon-il expects Oh to play for time, dragging out the appeals process while portraying himself as the victim of political persecution. But if the conviction was ultimately upheld, “it would immediately trigger an early succession race within the conservative camp”, Kim said. Among the presidential hopefuls is Han Dong-hoon, the former justice minister and People Power Party leader who split from Yoon over the investigations into former first lady Kim Keon-hee and was later expelled from the party. Elected as an independent in June, Han is widely expected to rejoin the People Power Party and inherit the conservative mantle, should Oh’s political career be cut short.

South Korea’s top conservative ‘a wounded lame duck’ after guilty verdict

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}A campaign finance conviction threatens to end Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon’s presidential ambitions, just weeks after winning a fifth term

A campaign finance conviction threatens to end Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon’s presidential ambitions, just weeks after winning a fifth term