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East Timor’s President Jose Ramos-Horta delivers a speech at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Secretariat in Jakarta on August 1. Photo: AFP
East Timor’s application to join Asean has been described as harder than entering heaven. After 14 years of waiting, it may formally become the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ 11th member state at the Asean Summit this October.
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Its membership journey began with the existing member states expressing reservations about its readiness for accession and showing concern about Asean’s readiness to welcome a new member. While East Timor has the second smallest population (behind Brunei) and the lowest per capita gross domestic product in the region, the developing island nation may revitalise Asean with its strong support for international law and faith in Asean’s leadership.

For the first time, the 2025 edition of the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s State of Southeast Asia survey asked elite opinion leaders from East Timor about their perceptions of geopolitics and other driving forces, alongside respondents from the 10 Asean states. Comprising 3.3 per cent of the 2,033 respondents, East Timor’s sample had the largest share of those aged 22-35 and 36-45 years old (almost 80 per cent) and those affiliated with regional or international organisations, of the 11 national samples.

Results show that East Timor may be more aligned with Asean than some might have previously thought. When asked to choose their top three (of eight) challenges facing the region, Timorese respondents chose “climate change and more extreme weather events” (77.3 per cent) as the most serious, with “rising income inequality” second (60.6 per cent) and “unemployment and economic recession” third (57.6 per cent).

Members of East Timor’s Special Police Unit demonstrate anti-riot capabilities during a ceremony marking the unit’s 16th anniversary in Dili on August 14. Photo: AFP
Members of East Timor’s Special Police Unit demonstrate anti-riot capabilities during a ceremony marking the unit’s 16th anniversary in Dili on August 14. Photo: AFP

Given the consistency of this ranking with the region’s, Asean may not need to be overly concerned that East Timor would pursue different interests vis-a-vis the region.

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Where divergences emerged between Asean and East Timor was in their perceptions of major power competition. When asked which entities had the most economic influence in the region, respondents from Asean member states ranked China far ahead of the United States and Asean, while Timorese respondents ranked Asean a strong second behind China. Timorese views on the most influential political and strategic power in the region, however, chimed with the 10 existing Asean members. Separately, Timorese respondents placed a higher level of trust in Asean than the regional average.
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