China’s road or the Western way: whose economic development model will prevail?
Francis Fukuyama says the US and other governments in the West must offer alternatives to China’s massive ‘One Belt, One Road’ Eurasian infrastructure initiative
Most Westerners are aware that growth has slowed substantially in China, from over 10 per cent per year in recent decades to below 7 per cent today (and possibly lower). The country’s leaders have not been sitting still in response, seeking to accelerate the shift from an export-oriented, environmentally damaging growth model based on heavy manufacturing to one based on domestic consumption and services.
READ MORE: What is the One Belt, One Road strategy all about
But there is a large external dimension to China’s plans as well. In 2013, President Xi Jinping (習近平) announced a massive initiative called “One Belt, One Road” which would transform the economic core of Eurasia. The “One Belt” component consists of rail links from western China through Central Asia and thence to Europe, the Middle East and South Asia.
The strangely named “One Road” component consists of ports and facilities to increase seaborne traffic from East Asia and connect these countries to the “One Belt”, giving them a way to move their goods overland, rather than across two oceans, as they currently do.
Indeed, “One Belt, One Road” represents a striking departure in Chinese policy. For the first time, China is seeking to export its development model to other countries. Chinese companies, of course, have been hugely active throughout Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade, investing in commodities and extractive industries, and the infrastructure needed to move them to China.
But “One Belt, One Road” is different: its purpose is to develop industrial capacity and consumer demand in countries outside of China. Rather than extracting raw materials, China is seeking to shift its heavy industry to less developed countries, making them richer and encouraging demand for Chinese products.
Laudable as these Western goals are, no country has ever got rich by investing in them alone. Public health is an important background condition for sustained growth; but if a clinic lacks reliable electricity and clean water, or there are no good roads leading to it, it won’t do much good.
China’s infrastructure-based strategy has worked remarkably well in China itself, and was an important component of the strategies pursued by other East Asian countries, from Japan to South Korea to Singapore.
Polluting industries, too, will be offloaded to other parts of the world. Rather than being at the periphery of the global economy, Central Asia will be at its core. And China’s form of authoritarian government will gain immense prestige, implying a large negative effect on democracy worldwide.
But there are important reasons to question whether “One Belt, One Road” will succeed. Infrastructure-led growth has worked well in China up to now because the Chinese government could control the political environment. This will not be the case abroad, where instability, conflict and corruption will interfere with Chinese plans.
This does not mean, however, that the US and other Western governments should sit by complacently and wait for China to fail. The strategy of massive infrastructure development may have reached a limit inside China, and it may not work in foreign countries, but it is still critical to global growth.
The US should have become a founding member of the AIIB; it could yet join and move China towards greater compliance with international environmental, safety and labour standards.
READ MORE: Hong Kong will be “super connector” to mainland China under ‘One Belt, One Road’ strategy
At the same time, the US and other Western countries need to ask themselves why infrastructure has become so difficult to build, not just in developing countries but at home as well. Unless we do, we risk ceding the future of Eurasia and other important parts of the world to China and its development model.
Francis Fukuyama is a senior fellow at Stanford University and director of the Centre on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. His most recent book is Political Order and Political Decay. Copyright: Project Syndicate