Has Beijing changed its mind about giving Hong Kong people the vote?

Ten years ago, Hong Kong’s leader Donald Tsang Yam-kuen persuaded Beijing to agree that the city could elect its chief executive by universal suffrage in 2017. It was seen as a watershed in Hong Kong’s democratic development, a move which would reshape the political landscape and improve the city’s governance.

Now that the time for that historic election has arrived, Tsang is languishing in prison, convicted by a jury of misconduct in public office. His plans for a democratic election this year lie in tatters. Proposals for universal suffrage were voted down by democrat lawmakers in 2015 in protest at the tight restrictions imposed by the central government on who could stand as a candidate.

We are stuck with an election by 1,194 people, most of whom can be expected to vote for Beijing’s preferred candidate. The result is almost a foregone conclusion. And the candidate likely to win has been careful not to make any commitment to restart the democratic reform process.

The ongoing process for choosing the city’s next leader has, sadly, followed a familiar pattern. It is widely believed that former chief secretary Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor is Beijing’s favoured candidate. There have been numerous reports of lobbying by mainland officials to ensure Election Committee members nominate and vote for her.