Floodgates opening: China dealt fresh blow in South China Sea disputes as Hague court to look into half of Philippines' claims against country
Further challenges to Chinese ambitions likely after court of arbitration rules it has jurisdiction over Manila's submissions in territorial dispute
A decision by a court in The Hague to take immediate jurisdiction over seven out of 15 submissions by the Philippines against China regarding territorial disputes may encourage others to challenge Beijing's South China Sea claims.
The decision came as China's navy chief warned his US counterpart encounters between their forces could spiral into conflict, state media reported, two days after a US destroyer sailed close to Beijing's artificial South China Sea islands.
The Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled on Thursday that it had jurisdiction over 15 submissions by Manila, including one that calls into question the validity of China's claims based on the nine-dash line under international maritime law as defined by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which China has ratified.
Beijing insists it has sovereign rights to nearly all of the South China Sea, a strategic waterway through which about a third of all the world's traded oil passes. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei have overlapping claims.
READ MORE: War of words: Beijing fumes as US threatens to send more warships near disputed South China Sea islets
Analysts said the tribunal's decision had already put China at a disadvantage, as it might encourage the other claimants.
"In the short term, it will provoke strong responses by all parties involved in disputes in the South China Sea," said Zhang Xinjun, a maritime law expert at Tsinghua University.
Ian Storey, senior fellow at Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS), said a victory for the Philippines would be an indirect victory for the other claimants.
In rejecting the arbitration, Beijing said it would disregard any findings by the tribunal and that it had no jurisdiction over territorial sovereignty disputes.
Tension in the South China Sea has escalated since the US destroyer USS Lassen sailed within 12 nautical miles of two Chinese artificial islands on Tuesday, with Admiral Wu Shengli , China's navy chief, warning his US counterpart Admiral John Richardson during a video call on Thursday.
"If the US continues to carry out these kinds of dangerous, provocative acts, there could be a serious situation between frontline forces from both sides on the sea and in the air, or even a minor incident that could spark conflict," Xinhua paraphrased Wu as saying.
The foreign ministry yesterday said China had made a declaration on optional exceptions under Article 298 of UNCLOS in 2006, which meant no country could unilaterally invoke compulsory procedures on territorial disputes without the consent of China.
However, refusing to appear in court would damage China's image and make it appear China was defying international rules and bullying smaller nations, said Zhang Mingliang, a researcher at Jinan University.
READ MORE: US risks conflicts with its 'provocative acts' in the South China Sea, China's navy chief warns
"China should take into consideration some interests and concerns of the Philippines, and let them see some hope through bilateral channels. This would help China establish itself as a friendly and responsible country, and would be a more pragmatic solution," he said.
A no-show by China could not affect further proceedings by the tribunal, according to UNCLOS. A binding ruling would probably be handed down in the first half of 2016, Storey said.
"The real reason why China has refused to participate is because it knows that its expansive claims in the South China Sea are incompatible with UNCLOS and that it would lose," Storey said.
"If the court rules in favour of the Philippines it will be a legal and a moral victory for Manila. The ball will then be in China's court to justify its maritime claims under existing international law."
However, Euan Graham, director of the International Security Programme at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, cautioned against describing this as a "victory" for the Philippines.
"The Philippines may, and probably should, get a favourable ruling overall. But we should not forget that the court will also take China's historic rights into account," he said.
Although the final ruling of the court would not be enforceable, "the embarrassment value to China should not be under-estimated", Graham added.
Experts said despite tension in the South China Sea, Beijing and Washington had brought their wrangles under control.
"China's navy chief just sent a verbal warning to his US counterpart. China would only use force to 'teach a lesson' to small countries, it would not dare challenge the US' military capability," Sun Yat-sen University military expert David Tsui said, adding that not offending the US had been a maxim of Mao Zedong .
"Even before the Cultural Revolution, the PLA gave nearly 500 'serious warnings' to the American military when its aircraft and warships frequently entered China's territory in sea and air, but took no military action."
Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie said Wu and Richardson's video call indicated both sides were keen to stick to their crisis-control mechanism.
A US official said the naval chiefs had agreed to maintain dialogue and follow protocols.
Scheduled port visits by US and Chinese ships and planned visits to China by senior US Navy officers remained on track.
"None of that is in jeopardy. Nothing has been cancelled," said the official.
