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Retired paramilitary officers conduct the daily national flag-raising and lowering ceremony in Tiananmen Square in Beijing. Asia will account for over half the world’s gross domestic product by 2050. Photo: Reuters

China, India eye ‘Asian Century’ as Brexit rattles old order

Globalisation and reluctance of Western institutions such as the World Bank to reform have left Asian nations looking to create new alliances, analysts say

Brexit

Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and simmering discontent in other Western countries are seen as hastening the arrival of an “Asian Century”, analysts say, led by the rise of China and India.

By 2050, Asia will account for over half the world’s gross domestic product, almost double that of 2011, according to the Asian Development Bank, with 3 billion newly affluent citizens.

The EU and other powerful collectives such as the United Nations, Nato, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank hark back to the post-second world war era, with a vision of cooperation leading to peace, prosperity and security. But the churning currents of globalisation and institutions’ reluctance to reform have left Asian nations feeling that they are not well-represented and looking to form new alliances.

The old system which kept the West rich and safe is under threat
Neelam Deo, director at Gateway House think tank

“The old system which kept the West rich and safe is under threat,” said Neelam Deo, a former ambassador and director at Gateway House think tank in Mumbai. “The British voting to leave the EU in the way they did will impact the old institutions which were set up after the second world war and intended to entrench Western power,” she said.

China-led Asian bank challenges US dominance of global economy

Brexit has summoned the spectre of a domino-like departure of other members of the EU, pounded by the migrant and euro crises, as well as a fragmenting Britain, should Scotland vote for independence. A resurgent Russia, which is angered by EU and US-imposed sanctions and has friendly ties with China and India, has hailed the Brexit vote as it looks for cracks to exploit.

Supporters of the European Union demonstrate alongside Brexit backers in London on Saturday. Photo: AFP

As the “American Century” got under way, following imperial Britain before it, China was writhing in the chaos of civil war and colonial India was just gaining independence. Now China is the world’s second-largest economy, set to overtake the US in about a decade, while India will be the world’s most populous nation by 2022.

New world order: Xi bent on securing bigger role for China in global affairs, analysts say

Asia’s growing clout rests on various assumptions, including that nations continue on the same economic trajectory and are not derailed by unforeseen financial crises. Other threats include rising inequality, the middle-income trap, when an economy gets stuck at a certain stage of development, and competition for natural ­resources.

Some see a general drift back towards sovereign nation states hostile to outside forces, seen in the mantra of “take back control from Brussels” that won the Brexit vote.

“We had this romantic vision to be one world. It is clearly over, nation member states have come back with a vengeance,” said Samir Saran, a senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.

“It is something we are witnessing around the world.”

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