South China Sea: Beijing poised for ‘long game’ with Manila over shoal dispute to avoid drawing in US, analysts say
- Collisions between Chinese and Filipino vessels in South China Sea spark fears of wider crisis, with US underlining its pledge to defend Manila
- Observers say ‘avoiding an escalation’ will be Beijing’s priority, as it seeks to wear out Manila and eventually compel it to accept China’s terms
But they also expect China to play the long game, to wear out Manila as Beijing seeks to avoid a wider regional conflict that might draw in the US, a Philippine treaty ally.
Beijing has warned against escalations in the South China Sea, where a collision between Chinese and Philippine coastguard vessels has triggered fears that any misstep could spark a wider crisis.
China will “legitimately defend” its rights in the South China Sea, Foreign Minister Wang Yi told a press conference on the sidelines of the annual National People’s Congress legislative meetings on Thursday.
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Beijing accuses Manila of deliberately ramming Chinese coastguard ship in disputed waters
“Abusing good faith should not be allowed. Distorting maritime laws cannot be accepted in the face of deliberate infringements,” he said.
“We will take justified actions to defend our rights in accordance with the law in face of unwarranted provocation; we will respond with prompt and legitimate countermeasures.”
He also took a swipe at the Philippines and the United States for the spike in tensions over maritime disputes.
“We also urge certain countries outside the region not to make provocations, pick sides or stir up troubles and problems in the South China Sea,” Wang said.
‘These are red lines’: Philippines won’t let China remove disputed shoal outpost
South China Sea collision
The US on Wednesday reiterated its commitment to defend the Philippines in case of any armed attacks in the South China Sea.
This came a day after Manila accused the Chinese coastguard of causing two collisions and firing a water cannon at Philippine boats as they carried out a resupply mission near the Second Thomas Shoal.
The disputed reef in the South China Sea has been occupied by a Philippine garrison stationed aboard a grounded landing ship since 1999.
Manila, which said four Filipino crew members were injured in the high-seas stand-off, summoned a Chinese diplomat in protest on Tuesday.
Beijing, meanwhile, claimed that the measures it took were “professional and standard” and that the Philippines should be held responsible for the “run-in”.
‘Much higher’ risk of armed conflict in South China Sea
But Marcos, who has moved closer to the US and pushed back against China since taking office in 2022, ruled out triggering the US-Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty over Tuesday’s incident.
Chen Xiangmiao, an associate researcher with the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in China’s Hainan province, said the recent incidents were “very serious” but avoiding an escalation would be Beijing’s priority.
“There’s a dilemma for China as its diplomatic approach fails to dissuade the Philippines, and it does not want the confrontations to further escalate,” he said.
Philippines accuses China of ‘deliberately stirring up trouble’ in disputed sea
“If the Philippines manages to build a permanent structure in the Second Thomas Shoal, or if it takes control of the [also disputed] Scarborough Shoal … that would be a scenario which would get out of hand for everyone.”
The Philippines is running out of ships for resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal, according to Vice-Admiral Alberto Carlos, chief of the Philippine military’s Western Command, who said the vessels were either limited in capability or under repair.
‘Gradually wearing out Manila’s patience’
Collin Koh, a maritime security researcher at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, said Beijing’s strategy would be to wear the Philippines out.
“This is what I believe till now to be Beijing’s strategy – to play the long game, gradually wearing out Manila’s patience and ability to conduct these resupply runs and eventually compelling the latter to come to PRC terms,” Koh wrote on X, formerly Twitter, using the acronym for China’s formal name – the People’s Republic of China.
But while Beijing and Manila both refuse to back down, Chen said whether the US would wade in remained in question.
The US has repeatedly reassured the Philippines on their “ironclad” defence partnership, but it remained unclear under what circumstances it would come to Manila’s aid, Chen said, especially as US and Chinese officials have consistently stressed the importance of preventing any conflict between the rival powers.
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‘We will not yield’: Marcos Jnr says Manila will not give up ‘one square inch’ of South China Sea
He said one option was for Beijing and Manila to reaffirm “certain tactical agreements” reached under Marcos’ predecessor Rodrigo Duterte.
Soon after Duterte took office in 2016, Beijing allowed resupply missions for humanitarian supplies to the Second Thomas Shoal.
Philippine fishermen were also able to return to the Scarborough Shoal – a rich fishing ground in the middle of the South China Sea. Beijing took control of the shoal, which it calls Huangyan Island, after an intense stand-off with the Philippines in 2012.
“[A reaffirmation] is the best and most likely scenario,” Chen said. “Otherwise confrontations will continue because Beijing is unlikely to compromise.”
