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Hong KongHong Kong Economy

Is Hong Kong really overwhelmed by tourists? These figures suggest otherwise

Just 3.5 per cent of people in Hong Kong each day are tourists, according to a formula devised by FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver – but it’s one in ten in Macau

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The figures may not take into account variations between districts, like tourist-heavy Mong Kok. Photo: Sam Tsang
Ben Westcott

Hongkongers often bemoan the tourist hordes from the mainland, accusing them of clogging the city’s streets with their wheeled suitcases and shopping bags – but new analysis suggests the city may not be as overwhelmed by visitors as it sometimes appears.

The South China Morning Post used a formula devised by the American data journalist Nate Silver for his news site FiveThirtyEight.com to calculate what proportion of people in Hong Kong on any given day are tourists. It also applied the same formula to Macau.

Based on that formula – which compares tourist arrivals to population – the Post’s calculations found that an average of 3.5 per cent of people in the city are tourists. The figures are based on World Bank statistics on overall tourist arrivals and the four-day average length of visit the Hong Kong Tourism Board cites.

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The figure would put Hong Kong in the top 25 in FiveThirtyEight’s study, at 23rd overall, just behind Ireland and St Lucia. But it would rank well behind regional rival Singapore, where 4.6 per cent of the population is made up of tourists.

READ MORE: Tourism down 8.4 per cent in July as mainland visitors stay away from Hong Kong

In Macau, however, 11.9 per cent of the population on any given day is from out of town. The former Portuguese enclave would rank third in FiveThirtyEight’s list, behind only European microstates Andorra and the Vatican City, which tops the list but has just 869 residents.

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