Speculation mounts over PM battle
Speculation is increasing that Kevin Rudd will again vie to become Australia's prime minister - the job he lost to Julia Gillard three years ago yesterday in a backroom party coup - as lawmakers gather in Canberra this week.
Gillard would still be the prime minister at the end of the week, the final time parliament sits before the September 14 election as the window for a challenge by Rudd closes, Communications Minister Stephen Conroy predicted in a televised interview on Sunday. Voters will "punish" the ruling Labor party if it continues to talk about the leadership and ignore policy debate, he said.
Pressure intensified on Gillard when Melbourne's newspaper wrote in an editorial on Saturday that Australia's first female leader should step down to enable policy-driven debate to flourish. Opinion polls indicate that a return to Rudd, whose previous challenge against Gillard in February 2012 fell well short, may avert a landslide win by the Tony Abbott-led Liberal-National opposition.
"It's near impossible to hold a leadership challenge unless the caucus is gathered in Canberra, so if anything is going to happen it has to happen this week," said Stephen Stockwell, a political analyst at Brisbane's Griffith University.
"It's uncertain whether Rudd yet has the numbers. Even those party members who dislike him may decide to be pragmatic and turn to him to help at least save some seats, rather than heading toward an election wipeout under Gillard," Stockwell said.
While Gillard has vowed she won't resign and Rudd has declared he won't contend for the leadership, media speculation has intensified that Labor lawmakers are seeking a way to return the former prime minister to his job. Should Gillard refuse to throw open her leadership, a challenge could only be held if more than a third of Labor's caucus demands a party room vote, known as a spill.
"I don't believe that Julia Gillard will be overturned as the prime minister this week," Conroy said on Sky Television on Sunday. "I absolutely believe Julia Gillard's got the majority of support in the caucus. I've thought that for the last three years and I continue to think that."
Australians have had a "gutful" of the leadership talk, Rudd said on Friday, ruling himself out of the running.
