Explainer | China on their mind: why the India-Nepal border has become a global flashpoint
- While territorial disputes between the countries go back to the 19th century, the coronavirus has injected a new level of ill will into the relationship
- The latest crisis has China written all over it
The Indian subcontinent is sweltering and it is not the summer heat.
The diplomatic fracas has shone light on a border dispute between the two Himalayan neighbours, one that has its origins in early 19th-century colonial rule. However, with Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Oli broadening the dispute by saying that the “Indian virus was more lethal than the Chinese and Italian now”, the tensions between the two are unlikely to be defused any time soon.
It didn’t help that the last week has also seen clashes between Indian and Chinese army personnel after the latter claimed that Indian troops had transgressed into Chinese territory.
HOW DID THIS HAPPEN?
The dispute isn’t new. If anything, the dispute came into existence after Nepal’s borders were demarcated in the 1816 Treaty of Sugauli between Nepal and British India. Thetreaty stated that the Maha Kali River would form Nepal’s western boundary. But this has been a protracted, complicated border dispute. At the root of it is the fact that neither side can agree on the location of the Kali river.
In November, after India revoked the special status of Jammu & Kashmir and bifurcated the state, it issued fresh maps showing approximately 62 square kilometres of territory, known as Kalapani, as its own. The move stirred a political storm in Nepal, with the Nepali government declaring that India had “encroached upon two per cent of Nepali territory”.
In the current tussle, the immediate provocation arose when the Indian defence minister remotely inaugurated an 80km road, much of it through the disputed territory, a move that was seen in Nepal as India further consolidating its hold over the disputed territory. Nepal’s objections – calling the Indian move “unilateral” – were dismissed by New Delhi. Many believe that domestic political factors forced Prime Minister Oli to respond to the situation.
HOW TENSE IS THE SITUATION?
Yet, experts say that there is history to it. “This isn’t sudden at all. Tensions have been building in the India-Nepal relationship and have escalated since the 2015 blockade,” said Dr K Yhome, a senior fellow at the New Delhi-based think tank, Observer Research Foundation.
IS THIS JUST A NEIGHBOURS’ SQUABBLE?
The crisis has China written all over it. Some 98 per cent of India’s disputes with Nepal have been settled. The reason why this one assumes so much importance is that it is located at a very critical tri-junction, between India, Nepal and China. In fact, in 2015, India and China had decided to use the Lipulek pass, currently disputed by India and Nepal, for trade. In response, Nepal had raised objections to this being done without its consent, and it pointed out how India has done little to assuage its concerns.
In fact, after Nepal objected to India inaugurating a new road going through the disputed territory, Indian Army chief Naravane hinted at China’s role in prodding Nepal. “There is a reason to believe that they might have raised this problem at the behest of someone else and that is very much a possibility,” he was quoted as saying, while addressing an online conference organised by a New Delhi defence think tank.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Much depends on how far Oli, who is struggling on the political front as intraparty rifts put him on a poor footing, is willing to ratchet up the rhetoric against India. Experts like Yhome believe it will be difficult for both sides, but especially Oli, to be seen doing a climbdown from his position. China hasn’t broken its silence on the issue yet. India, meanwhile, has called out Nepal’s new maps as “cartographic assertions” and an “artificial enlargement of territorial claims”.
Modi’s muscular, hypernationalist brand of politics means he cannot be seen kowtowing to Nepal.
However, Sameer Patil, a fellow of the International Security Studies Programme at the Mumbai-based think tank Gateway House, said that New Delhi did not have to be alarmed at the recent happenings just yet. “This might just be a temporary blip in relations. India’s problems with Nepal might be specific to this particular government rather than the nation, almost like what we saw in Sri Lanka and the Maldives.”
Addressing Nepal’s objections to India’s road inauguration in early May, the Indian foreign ministry spokesperson had said that both sides were planning to schedule foreign secretary-level talks. If those indeed happen, they might be good first steps towards toning down the rhetoric and returning to normalising relations.
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