I said this eight months ago and I will say it again: Leung’s downfall is more than a prediction – it is a foregone conclusion. But it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.
I work in the finance industry and I’m used to personnel turnover. Bankers, traders and lawyers hop from one bank to another every few years. While some leave on their own accord, others are pushed out because they don’t deliver. Before a co-worker announces a departure, I usually see it coming a mile away. The signs are always there for the taking. For instance, he suddenly keeps a low profile and reduces meetings and emails to a minimum. He is hardly at his desk any more – and when he is, he is organising files or on the phone with HR. He clears his vacation days and schedules dental works and physical checkups. Things that he used to care a great deal about, like headcount and budget, no longer seem to bother him. But he is careful about keeping up appearances: he smiles a lot, wears a suit a lot and says “let’s grab lunch some time” to people a lot.
If CY Leung worked on my floor, I would have said to myself, “Yep, he’ll be gone in three months. Six months tops". Since I first predicted his demise in my blog
A Hundred Days of Solitude last October, Leung has been exhibiting every behavioural pattern I outlined in the preceding paragraph. Our Chief Executive has gone A.W.O.L., M.I.A. and A.F.K. For someone who loves the microphone and doesn’t skimp on words, Leung has been remarkably camera-shy. These days when we do see him – which is rare – he looks aloof, disengaged and defeated. He is a far cry from the zealous politician who ran on an Obamian “change” platform and defused every scandal with vigour and conviction. Three weeks ago when American whistle-blower Edward Snowden sought refuge in Hong Kong, it was his cabinet member Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee and Security Secretary Lai Tung-kwok who faced the press. When a television reporter finally got through to Leung, he had this to say: “I already told you I have no comment. Listen, I’m busy with something at the moment.” Click. It wasn’t until after the fugitive fled the city that a stone-faced Leung crawled out of the hole and delivered a few rehearsed lines to the foreign press.