If South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun is right about North Korea, then by implication the Bush administration is wrong and, thus - logically - the latter may be putting itself in the position of having to fight a new war.
North Korea, according to Washington, is a nuclear state (budding or otherwise), a ferocious communist terrorist state and a state that exports weapons of mass destruction. It cannot be trusted, it is unlikely to honour any disarmament agreements and a democratic regime must be put in place if the Korean Peninsula is ever to achieve true denuclearised security.
But this is not remotely the North Korea depicted by Mr Roh last Friday in Los Angeles during a foreign-policy address before the World Affairs Council.
North Korea, according to him, is a constantly weakening state, hard-pressed 'to even maintain its current level of existence', eager to forgo its nuclear weapons programme in return for western economic assistance, committed (out of dire necessity) to talks and other exchanges with South Korea, and in no position to launch a slew of offensive operations anywhere.
What is more, Pyongyang lives in constant dread of offensive and pre-emptive American military action. Is it just imagining this? No, says Mr Roh. 'North Korea's claim does make sense, to a certain degree. Its nuclear pursuit cannot be viewed in the context of offensive use, or terrorist sales.' Its ambition is to see that 'its security is assured'. Implicit in this perspective is the belief that the starkly contrasting US view is based on dated intelligence and outmoded assumptions.
But, if North Korea is so weak, why not simply take it out? Mr Roh's view is that such pre-emptive action would prove a cure worse than the disease. Rather than succumbing docilely to its perdition, North Korea would strike southwards; throwing everything it had in one lunge to save itself. 'We can't be asked to risk the trauma of such a war again,' said Mr Roh, referring to the horrible Korean war half a century ago.
