Economy to be third largest in world by 2010, says think-tank

The mainland's economy will become the world's third largest by 2010 even though its growth will slow down slightly in the next five years, according to a central government think-tank.

The Chinese Academy of Sciences' new Forecasting Science Centre yesterday said the economy would maintain its growth momentum this year in a continuing low-inflation environment. It said it expected growth to slow slightly in the first half of the year but pick up again in the second half.

The report did not provide a figure for estimated economic growth this year but said it expected the economy to grow by about 8 per cent a year between this year and 2010. The economy grew by an average of about 10 per cent a year over the past five years.

National Bureau of Statistics commissioner Li Deshui has said the mainland's gross domestic product rose to 18.23 trillion yuan last year, making it the world's fourth-biggest economy.

Centre director Wang Shouyang said there would be neither inflation nor deflation this year as long as investment is controlled, a balance between imports and exports maintained, and overproduction is limited.

The centre, which officially opened on Thursday, released seven reports forecasting developments in various aspects of the mainland economy in the next 15 years. Xinhua said the centre would advise the government on macroeconomic policy.