Looking to the future

FORECASTING ECONOMIC and social developments in the region for the next year or two is a daunting enough task. Just imagine how difficult it would be to project what will happen in the next decade or two.

That is exactly what George Leung Siu-kay will be doing in his new role as HSBC's adviser on strategy and economics for the Asia-Pacific region. And he is delighted to take on the responsibility.

The aim of the exercise is to help HSBC develop strategies to increase its share of business in the region from the current 33 per cent to 45 per cent of the bank's global business activities in 10 years.

'Forecasts of economic and social activities are a critical component in many decisions,' said Mr Leung, who is the bank's former chief economist for Greater China. 'Businesses rely on them to form production plans, policymakers rely on them when drafting national budgets, and banks do so to plan future strategies.'

He said HSBC's senior management needed both economic data and reasoned analysis to project regional developments and implement plans to tap into new markets or niche areas. In this respect, Mr Leung and his team would study factors such as domestic consumption, population growth and spending patterns to identify trends and devise recommendations.

For example, they might examine a country's deposit and loan ratio compared to gross domestic product. Where there is a high rate of savings compared with borrowing, HSBC might develop strategies to encourage the transfer of savings into investments for wealth development or retirement. In such cases, Hong Kong and its range of wealth management products might serve as a model.