Despite Beijing's strong protests about the Dalai Lama's reception in Washington, analysts say Sino-US relations are simply too important for the mainland to turn its words into action.
They said it would be politically problematic for Mr Bush to shun long-held tradition and fail to attend the ceremony where the Congressional Gold Medal - the top civilian honour in the US - would be awarded to the Tibetan spiritual leader.
Perry Link, professor of East-Asian Studies at Princeton University, said apart from the cancellation of a meeting on Iran's nuclear programme, he did 'not think much will happen'.
Professor Link said it was customary for the US president to attend congressional medal ceremonies, and 'for Bush to stay away would be to allow the Chinese government to interfere in internal affairs'.
Andrew Nathan, of Columbia University, said the central government had clearly expressed its displeasure, but he did not expect any long-term damage to relations.
'The US-China relationship is so important to both sides that it is difficult to interrupt it for long,' he said. 'Besides, China's prime foreign policy goal is to place what is currently a co-operative US-China relationship on a stable long-term strategic basis.'
