The central nervous system of the Bush administration's 'war on terror' may now be frayed beyond recognition or repair. Tired American soldiers are bogged down in Iraq, whose indigenous politicians cannot get their act together, and where the real al-Qaeda terrorists are fewest in number.
In Afghanistan, where there are more of the bad guys, the Nato alliance is undermanned and demoralised; European governments are shakier than ever in their resolve to do what it takes.
And, in Pakistan, where there may be the greatest number of al-Qaeda members anywhere, the Bush administration's chief ally has just been embarrassingly told to take a hike by his people.
The Pakistan election must be the most astounding low-turnout landslide in recent memory. Many people were too frightened to vote, fearing retaliation from the government of Pervez Musharraf, the military careerist who tried to repackage himself as the saviour of rectitude and integrity. But those who did courageously overcome their fears voted overwhelmingly for almost anyone but the dictator.
There are two immediate implications. One is that President Musharraf must stand down immediately - or allow his position to be watered down dramatically to lame-duck status. As I wrote last September: 'Musharraf must leave not because he is an authoritarian, but because he has lost the confidence of the Pakistanis.' Now, with the weekend election, that loss of confidence becomes official.
The second implication is that the Bush administration must do nothing in Pakistan of any consequence. It also needs to do something which it is normally not good at: be quiet, because everything it has done or said has generally been misconceived.
