Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a fugitive from Thai law, continues to raise the political temperature at home. Recently, while visiting South Korea, he said he would return to Thailand at the end of the year.
This was not the first time Thaksin had teased his supporters about his homecoming. He has constantly sought to measure the public response to his possible return to politics.
Yet, Thaksin today remains at the centre of Thai politics, despite being ousted from power almost six years ago, and later convicted on a charge of conflict of interest and sentenced in absentia to two years in jail. He undoubtedly influences key polices in the current government led by his sister, Yingluck.
Thaksin's enemies in high places may now see that isolating him won't guarantee their grip on power. A channel of communication between Thaksin and them has been reopened. Indeed, some of the government's recent moves seem to suggest that a deal has been made.
The Yingluck government appears to have decided it would not remove the outspoken ultra-royalist General Prayuth Chan-ocha from his army chief post and, more importantly, would not amend the anachronistic lese-majeste law. In exchange for leaving alone issues that could affect the monarchy's well-being, her government would be allowed to bring Thaksin home without him having to face the charges.
The stakes for the Yingluck government in such a deal would be high. As it stands, this arrangement excludes the poor, among whom are the red-shirt supporters who brought the ruling Puea Thai party into power.