Balancing the Philippines’ security alliance with the US and trading relationship with China while trying to maintain Asean centrality will be no easy feat for whoever replaces Rodrigo Duterte as president, writes Lucio Blanco Pitlo III.

The newly-opened Laos-China railway is just one page in Beijing’s growing portfolio of infrastructure projects in the region. Notwithstanding the challenges, China’s gambit is paying dividends in the form of contracts and clout.

Securing choke points and vital waterways has become more challenging as maritime spats between neighbours fester and great-power rivalry gathers force. Countries have embarked on multi-year modernisation programmes, acquiring new and refurbished ships and submarines.

Manila is in a tight spot, balancing its treaty alliance with the US, Asean concerns about a regional arms race, and maintaining its relations with China.

The Afghanistan debacle presents an opportunity for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to play a constructive role in meeting the region’s burgeoning security challenge – if members can get beyond historical baggage and mistrust.

The Philippines president wants to project his balancing act as a demonstration of his independent foreign policy. Whether he endorses a successor or runs as vice-president next year, such a posture is vital in securing the country’s autonomy.

The Philippine leader’s six month reprieve for the Visiting Forces Agreement means he essentially passes the decision to the electorate and next president.

Celebrations for the Fourth of July in the US and the Chinese Communist Party’s centenary will intensify the clash of narratives among the competing powers seeking greater engagement in Southeast Asia.

The coalition of prominent Duterte critics has its work cut out to win the 2022 presidential election, but its China strategy could have big implications for regional stability if it does, says Lucio Blanco Pitlo III.

The strain on the Philippines from dealing with the two great powers jostling for influence in Southeast Asia is becoming apparent. Manila now faces questions over whether any concessions it gets from the US are worth the added risk should US-China conflict break out.

Many international actors are vying to play the role of peacemaker in Myanmar, but Asean is best suited to broker talks. The efforts of Indonesia and other members show genuine interest to stop growing instability from spilling across the region.

Although Rodrigo Duterte has railed against the Visiting Forces Agreement with the US, Washington can show its commitment to the pact through high-level talks.

While much of Asia, including the Philippines, would welcome the US reclaiming its global leadership role, regaining its position at the ‘head of the table’ is not going to be a cakewalk, says Lucio Blanco Pitlo III.

Manila is right to claim ownership of Sabah, argues Lucio Blanco Pitlo III. Malaysia cannot buy off the Philippines into dropping its claim any more than it can rewrite history.

Washington may dangle inducements to get regional backing for the sanctions, fuelled by the companies’ actions in the South China Sea. But it shouldn’t force countries to make tough choices, given that firms such as CCCC are already part of the region’s Belt and Road Initiative projects.

The US has acknowledged the 2016 tribunal ruling as it boosts its efforts to counter China’s attempts to consolidate its hold over the disputed waters.

The country’s fight against armed insurgents has for decades cost lives, hamstrung development and diverted military resources, but the bill’s overreliance on draconian measures could backfire.

A Philippine naval ship recently docked at a new port in the Spratly Islands, showing Manila’s resolve to defend its interests even as its ties with Beijing improve.

China’s renewed assertiveness may be driven by both domestic and external factors as Beijing seeks to bolster support at home for its tough security stance, while showing rival claimants and the US that maritime and sovereignty issues will not be sidelined amid the pandemic.

As China rises from the pandemic, it will seek to resume infrastructure projects, especially in Southeast Asia, albeit on a more subdued scale.

Amid the pandemic, Phnom Penh and Hanoi have deepened allegiances that have a bearing on great power rivalry in Asia.

Withdrawing from its military alliance with Washington could now see Manila move closer to Beijing – but there are other options it might follow.

Duterte’s threat to end the Philippines’ military agreement with Washington highlights the challenges of managing America’s alliances in the age of great power rivalry.

The first visit by a Chinese coastguard ship to Manila is a milestone moment. But if Beijing is serious about boosting cooperation, it must exercise greater restraint in the contested waters.

While Southeast Asia is a vital foothold for Washington, it must realise its regional partners are now sovereign actors with full agency and varied interests.

After his recent visits to China and Russia, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte must balance commitments to the United States – country’s traditional ally – without upsetting new partners.

The spike in Chinese offshore gambling operators has brought jobs and revenue but also problems. Manila must work with Beijing to crack down on human trafficking, fraud and illegal operators. Operators should also be encouraged to diversify investments in the Philippines.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will visit Beijing later this month and resource cooperation might help the Philippines in its bid to get China to comply with the 2016 arbitral ruling, writes Lucio Blanco Pitlo III.

An apology from the captain of the Chinese vessel, punishment for those found to be negligent and compensation for the Filipino fishermen would ease tensions. Meanwhile, the incident is a reminder of the need to conclude a regional maritime code of conduct.

From trade to the South China Sea and technology, the US and China increasingly find themselves at odds, with regional countries caught in the middle. Many smaller players are now realising the importance of staying friendly with both but beholden to neither.