Positive sentiment in the US stock market fails to account for continuing unrest in the run-up to the presidential election, a second wave of Covid-19 infections and tensions with the European Union and China.

Greater danger and fragmentation are likely in the coming years as Russia keeps its place at the great powers table while Turkey and other regional powers vie for influence.

On this day, the market’s longest bull run ended, leaving recession looming. The US bans travel from continental Europe, reawakening EU ideas of self-reliance. And a pandemic is declared, exposing the failure of containment and Chinese leadership, particularly for Xi Jinping. March 2020 will mark the start of a new era, with tectonic changes in the economic, political, diplomatic, social and security spheres